Business cycle survey - February 2013

Confidence in economy increased m-o-m

25.02.2013
Code: r-1201-13
 




Overall confidence in domestic economy increased in February. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 1.6 points compared to January. Entrepreneurs confidence indicator increased due to improving confidence in industry, m-o-m. Among entrepreneurs confidence decreased in construction and in trade; in selected services decreased slightly. Confidence of consumers increased m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator and entrepreneurs confidence indicator are lower; consumer confidence indicator is higher, compared to February 2012.

In industry , in February, the assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents unchanged. The assessment of current total and foreign demand unchanged too. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods decreased. For the next three months, respondents expect a slight increase in the development of production activity as well as in the employment. Compared to January, expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months increased, for the next six months did not change. All in all, confidence in industry increased, compared to January, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in February, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand decreased slightly, compared to January. For the next three months, respondents expect no changes in the development of construction activity and decrease in the employment. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased, m-o-m. Overall, confidence in construction decreased, compared to January, and it is lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents did not change m-o-m. The stocks increased. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months did not change, for the next six months increased slightly, compared to January. In February, confidence in trade decreased m-o-m, and it is lower y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector) , in February, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged, m-o-m. The assessment of demand almost unchanged too in February, but its expectations for the next three months decreased. For the next three as well as six months, expectations of total economic situation development decreased, compared to January. All in all, confidence in selected services decreased slightly m-o-m, and it is lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator increased in February, m-o-m, and it is higher y-o-y too. The survey taken among consumers in February indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation, as well as their own financial standing. Worries about increase in unemployment almost did not change, compared to January. The share of respondents intending to save money almost unchanged too. Respondents are still afraid of rise in prices and they do not consider making major purchases.


Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: February 19, 2013
Related publication: 1201-13 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: March 25, 2013

This press release was not edited for language.



  • akpr022513.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
  • Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
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Published: 25.02.2013
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz