Business cycle survey - November 2012

Overall confidence in economy decreased

26.11.2012
Code: r-1201-12
 




Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased in November. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased by 1.7 points compared to October. Among entrepreneurs confidence almost unchanged only in selected services. In construction, in trade, and in industry decreased. Confidence of consumers almost unchanged m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator and entrepreneurs confidence indicator are lower, compare to November 2011, consumer confidence indicator is higher.
In industry , in November, the assessment of current overall economic situation decreased. The assessment of current total and current foreign demand almost unchanged, compare to October. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods increased. For the next three months, respondents expect a decrease in the development of production activity and no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months almost unchanged, for the next six months they are higher than in October. All in all, confidence in industry due to the growth of stocks of finished goods decreased, compare to October, and it is still lower y-o-y.

The survey on investment activity in manufacturing industry suggests that the level of investment should decrease by approximately 1% in 2013. Investments will from four fifths flow only to a renewal of production equipment; and lesser funds will be allocated to an extension of production capacities and purchase of new technologies.

In construction, in November, the assessment of current economic situation decreased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand decreased too, compare to October. For the next three months, respondents expect decrease in the development of construction activity and decrease in the employment too. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months almost unchanged, m-o-m. Overall, confidence in construction decreased, compare to October, and it is still lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation decreased, compare to October. The stocks decreased slightly. Expectations of the economic situation development for next three as well as six months declined, compare to October. In November, confidence in trade decreased m-o-m, and it is lower y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector) , in November, the assessment of current economic situation decreased slightly, compare to October. The assessment of demand almost unchanged in November, but its expectations for the next three months increased. For the next three as well as six months, expectations of total economic situation development almost unchanged, compare to October. All in all, confidence in selected services almost unchanged m-o-m, and it is higher y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator almost unchanged in November, and it is higher y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in November indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months equally afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation, m-o-m. Worries about their own financial standing as well as of an increase in unemployment didn´t change, compare to October. The share of respondents intending to save money increased significantly. Respondents are still afraid of rises in prices.


Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: November 16, 2012
Related publication: 1201-12 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: December 27, 2012

This press release was not edited for language.



  • akpr112612.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
  • Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
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Published: 26.11.2012
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz