Business cycle survey - September 2020

Business and consumer confidence in the economy increased m-o-m

24.09.2020
Code: 070008-20
 

The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) – in the basis index form - increased by 3.9 percentage points to 90.9, m-o-m. Business confidence indicator rises by 4.0 percentage points to 89.5 (m-o-m).  The consumer confidence indicator increased by 3.2 points to 97.6, m- o-m. Economic sentiment indicator, business confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator have significantly lower values, y-o-y.

Although overall confidence in the economy rose m-o-, in September, confidence indicator in industry fell. The confidence indicator fell by 1.0 point to 90.5. The share of entrepreneurs evaluating their current total demand as insufficient has hardly changed compared to August. The stock of finished products has not changed. Entrepreneurs expect a decline in the growth rate of production activity for next three months. In September, for the fifth month in a row, the declining share of entrepreneurs expecting a reduction in the number of employees. Compared to September 2019, confidence in the industry is still lower.

In the construction sector, confidence increased m-o-m. The confidence indicator rose by 4.9 points to 111.6. In September, for the third month in a row, the share of entrepreneurs assessing their current demand for construction work as insufficient decreased. At the same time, construction entrepreneurs estimate that they will not change the current number of employees in the next three months. In a year-on-year comparison, however, confidence in the construction is still significantly lower.

In the trade, confidence indicator increased compared to the previous month. The confidence indicator increased by 1.7 points to 98.1. Entrepreneurs assessed the overall economic situation significantly better than in August. Still, at the same time, the share of entrepreneurs who expect it to improve for the next three months fell sharply. The stock of goods remained almost unchanged, m-o-m. For the first time since April this year, confidence in trade is slightly higher, y-o-y.

Confidence in selected services (including the banking sector) has increased. The confidence indicator rose by 9.2 points (the highest month-on-month growth since the beginning of the survey) to 84.9, which is still well below the long-term average. The assessment of the overall economic situation has increased. For the first time since April, the share of respondents positively evaluating the current total demand prevailed. Compared to August, the share of entrepreneurs expecting an improvement in demand for the next three months also increased. Confidence in selected services is significantly lower, y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator increased m-o-m. The confidence indicator rose by 3.2 points to 97.6. Consumers' concerns about the deterioration in the overall economic situation remained roughly the same in September as in August. However, in a month-on-month comparison, consumers are less worried about the deterioration of their financial situation. The intention to save has increased. Concerns about rising prices fell, m-o-m, but remain high. As in previous months, the number of consumers who fear an increase in unemployment in the next twelve months continues to predominate in September. Compared to the same month last year, consumer confidence is still significantly lower.

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Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, Director of Business Statistics Coordination and Business Cycle Surveys Department, tel. +420731439291,  e-mail: juraj.lojka@czso.cz
Contact person: Jiri Obst, Head of Business Cycle Surveys Unit, tel. +420604815440, e-mail: jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, Data Collect consumer survey (https://www.datacollect.cz)
End of data collection: September 17, 2020
Next News Release: October 26, 2020
This press release wasn´t edited for language.

Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN.

  •      akpr092420.docx

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Chart 1 Confidence indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (2003–2020)
  • Chart 2.1 Confidence Indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services – base indices, seasonally adjusted (2003–2020)
  • Chart 2.2 Balances of seasonally adjusted confidence indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services (2003–2020)
  • Chart 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison, seasonally adjusted (2007-2020)
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Published: 24.09.2020
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz