Business cycle survey - February 2011

Confidence of entrepreneurs and consumers decreased

Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased m-o-m in February. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased by 1.5 points, due to a decrease in both entrepreneurs’ and consumers’ confidence. Confidence of entrepreneurs decreased by 1.5 points m-o-m; confidence of consumers decreased by 1.7 points. Compared to a low value in February 2010, the composite confidence indicator is 8.1 points up.

Business confidence indicator decreased by 1.5 points in February. Among entrepreneurs, confidence decreased the most in industry, where it however remains on relatively high levels due to previous growth. Confidence decreased also in construction, and in selected services; confidence increased in trade. Compared to a low value in February 2010, the confidence of entrepreneurs is 10.5 points up.

In industry, the assessment of current overall economic situation did not change. The assessment of total and foreign demand decreased in February compared to January. According to respondents, stocks increased. For next three months, respondents expect a slight increase in production activity as well as in employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are higher than in January. All in all the confidence in industry decreased by 2.7 points due to February decrease in demand and increase in stocks; compared to low values in February 2010 it is 15.6 points up.

In construction, the assessment of current economic situation did not change either in February as well as the low assessment of total demand. For the period of the next three months respondents expect a slow down in construction activity by decrease in employment, compared to January. Respondents estimate that they have work secured by contracts for 7.6 months ahead. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months are the same as in January, for next six months they are higher. Overall, the confidence in construction decreased by 2 points after its previous rise, and it is 5.5 points down, y-o-y.

In trade, the assessment of current economic situation in February increased, compared to January. According to respondents, in February, the finished goods stocks increased slightly. Expectations of the economic situation development for the period of the next three as well as six months are higher than in January. In general, the confidence in trade increased by 3.3 points, m-o-m, and it is 8.3 points up y-o-y.

In selected services, according to respondents, the assessment of current economic situation decreased compared to January. The assessment of demand increased; its expectations for the next three months decreased. For the period of the next three as well as six months expectations of total economic situation development are higher than in January. Overall, the confidence in selected services decreased slightly (by 0.7 point), m-o-m, but it is 6.6 points up y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased by 1.7 points compared to January, to be 1.7 points down as well compared to February 2010. The survey taken among consumers in February indicates that consumers expect for the next twelve months larger decrease in the overall economic situation than in their own financial standing. The share of respondents expecting rises in unemployment decreased further in February. Percentage of respondents planning to save money decreased markedly. Respondents do not consider current economic situation to be a good moment to save and simultaneously still assess current situation as not very suitable for major purchases.

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Note
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements
of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: 15 February 2011
Related publication: 1201-10 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction,
Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: 24 March 2011
Not edited for language
Note: Long term average is usually calculated over the period from 1990, if harmonised data are available (for the Czech Republic, it is an average since 1993).

Published: 22.02.2011
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.