Business cycle survey - May 2016

Confidence of entrepreneurs increased slightly, confidence of consumers did not change, m-o-m

24.05.2016
Code: 070008-16
 

Overall confidence in domestic economy increased slightly in May. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator), that is stated by basic indices, increased by 0.4 points to 96.0, m-o-m. Confidence of entrepreneurs increased slightly by 0.5 points to 94.3, compared to April. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased slightly in industry and in selected services, in trade decreased slightly and in construction decreased. Consumer confidence indicator did not change and still remains at 104.3, m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are higher, compared to May 2015.

In industry, in May, confidence increased slightly by 0.9 points to 95.6. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged. The assessment of current total and foreign demand almost unchanged too. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged. For the next three months, respondents expect an increase in the development of production activity and no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased, compared to April. All in all, confidence in industry is lower, y-o-y.

In May, confidence in construction decreased by 4.1 points to 76.6. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents did not change m-o-m. The assessment of total demand for construction work almost unchanged compared to April. Respondents expect for the next three months a decrease in the development of construction activity and in the employment too. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased. Overall, confidence in construction is lower, y-o-y.

In May, confidence in trade decreased slightly by 0.5 points to 98.5, m-o-m. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged, m-o-m. The stocks almost unchanged too. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased slightly, compared to April. Overall, confidence in trade is lower, y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector), in May, confidence increased slightly by 0.7 points to 94.4. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents did not change compared to April. The assessment of demand in May decreased, its expectations for the next three months increased. Expectations of total economic situation development for the next three as well as six months almost unchanged, m-o-m. All in all, confidence in selected services is higher, y-o-y.

In May, consumer confidence indicator did not change and still remains at 104.3, m-o-m, and it is higher, y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in May indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months equally afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their financial standing decreased. The share of respondents intending to save money did not change, compared to April. Worries about rise in the unemployment increased, m-o-m. The respondents concern about rises in prices almost unchanged.

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Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Jiří Obst, tel. +420274054116, e-mail: jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN.
End of data collection: May 18, 2016
Related publication: 070006-16 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services (https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/business-cycle-surveys)
Next News Release: June 25, 2016

This press release was not edited for language.

  •      akpr052416.docx

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 1.1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators (2008 - 2016)
  • Graph 1.2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators (1998 - 2016)
  • Graph 2.1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services (2006 – 2016) – basic indices
  • Graph 2.2 Balances of Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services (2006 – 2016)
  • Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
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Published: 24.05.2016
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz