Business cycle survey - April 2012

Confidence in economy decreased

24.04.2012
Code: r-1201-12
 




Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased in April. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased by 1.5 points compared to March. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased only in construction; in trade, in selected services and in industry decreased. Confidence of consumers increased slightly. Composite confidence indicator is lower, compare to April 2011.

In industry , in April, the assessment of current overall economic situation decreased slightly. The assessment of current total and foreign demand decreased too. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods increased. Production capacity utilization in manufacturing industry decreased slightly in April and reached 82.6%; respondents estimate they have work secured slightly less than in the previous quarter. Most important barrier of production still is insufficient demand; it was stated by almost half of respondents. For the next three months, respondents still expect a slight increase in the development of production activity and a decrease in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are lower than in March. All in all, confidence in industry decreased, compare to March, but it is still lower y-o-y.

The survey on investment activity taken among manufacturing enterprises suggests that after a slight increase in 2011, the level of investment should increase by about 8 % in 2012. It refers predominantly to a renewal of production equipment and less to an extension of production capacities and introducing new technologies.

In construction, in April, the assessment of current economic situation increased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand slightly improved again, compare to March. Respondents expect a slight decline in the development of construction activity as well as a decrease in the employment. Works secured by contracts increased slightly again. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months are lower than in March, for the next six months are slightly higher. Overall, in March and April, still low confidence in construction increased slightly due to construction season, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation decreased, compare to March. The stocks increased. Expectations of the economic situation development for next three as well as six months are lower, compare to March. In April, confidence in trade decreased m-o-m, and it is lower y-o-y.

In selected services , in April, the assessment of current economic situation increased slightly, compare to March. The assessment of demand decreased and its expectations for the next three months didn´t change. For next three months, expectations of total economic situation development didn´t change too, compare to March, for the next six months they are lower. Confidence in selected services decreased m-o-m, but it is 1.3 points higher y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator slightly increased in April, and it is still markedly down y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in April indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation as well as in their own financial standing. Percentage of respondents expecting an increase in unemployment slightly decreased too. The share of respondents intending to save money decreased. Respondents are still more afraid of rises in prices.


Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: April 18, 2012
Related publication: 1201-12 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: May 24, 2012

This press release was not edited for language.



  • akpr042412.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
  • Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
  • Graph 4 Production Capacity Utilisation in Manufacturing Industry
  • Graph 5 Limits of Production in Industry
  • Graph 6 Limits of Production in Construction
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Published: 24.04.2012
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz