Business cycle survey - August 2013

Confidence in economy revived slightly

26.08.2013
Code: r-1201-13
 



Overall confidence in domestic economy increased in August. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 1.4 points compared to July. Confidence of entrepreneurs increased, m-o-m. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased in selected services, in trade increased slightly; in industry did not change and in construction decreased . Confidence of consumers increased m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are higher; entrepreneurs confidence indicator is lower, compared to August 2012.

In industry , in August, the assessment of current overall economic situation almost unchanged. The assessment of current total and foreign demand almost unchanged too. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods decreased. For the next three months, respondents expect a decrease in the development of production activity and a no changes employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are lower than in July. All in all, confidence in industry did not change, compared to July, and it is higher y-o-y.

In construction, in August, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand in August decreased too, compare to July. For the next three months, respondents expect an increase in the development of construction activity and in the employment too. In August, expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased. Overall, confidence in construction decreased, compared to July, and it is lower y-o-y too.

In trade , in August, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased slightly m-o-m. The stocks did not change. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months did not change, for the next six months decreased slightly, compared to July. In August, confidence in trade increased slightly m-o-m, but it is lower y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector) , in August, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased, m-o-m. The assessment of demand in August and its expectations for the next three months increased. For the next three months expectations of total economic situation development increased slightly, for the next six months did not change, compared to July. All in all, confidence in selected services increased m-o-m and it is lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator increased in August, m-o-m, and it is still higher y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in August indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about increase in unemployment decreased too, compared to July. Worries about their own financial standing almost unchanged, m-o-m. Respondents are afraid of rises in prices. The share of respondents intending to save money decreased slightly compare to July as well as the intention to acquire consumer durables.


Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: August 20, 2013
Related publication: 1201-13 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: September 24, 2013

This press release was not edited for language.



  • akpr082613.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
  • Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
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Published: 26.08.2013
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz