Business cycle survey - September 2016

Confidence of entrepreneurs almost unchanged, confidence of consumers increased again, m-o-m

26.09.2016
Code: 070008-16
 

Overall confidence in domestic economy increased slightly in September. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator), that is stated by basic indices, increased slightly by 0.3 points to 97.1, m-o-m. Confidence of entrepreneurs decreased very slightly by 0.1 points to 95.2, compared to August. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased in selected services; in industry decreased slightly; in construction and in trade decreased. Consumer confidence indicator increased by 2.1 points to 106.4, m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are higher, compared to September 2015.

In industry, in September, confidence decreased slightly by 0.7 points to 97.1. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged. The assessment of current total and foreign demand almost unchanged too. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged. For the next three months, respondents expect a decrease in the development of production activity and almost no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months almost unchanged, for the next six months decreased, compared to August. All in all, confidence in industry is higher, y-o-y.

In September, confidence in construction decreased by 5.1 points to 72.5. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand for construction work almost unchanged, compared to August. Respondents expect for the next three months decrease in the development of construction activity and in the employment too. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months decreased, for the next six months almost unchanged. Overall, confidence in construction is lower too, y-o-y.

In September, confidence in trade decreased by 1.2 points to 97.3, m-o-m. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents decreased, m-o-m. The stocks almost unchanged. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months did not change, for the next six months decreased, compared to August. Overall, confidence in trade is lower too, y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector), in September, confidence increased by 1.2 points to 95.6. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged compared to August. The assessment of demand in September unchanged, its expectations for the next three months increased. Expectations of total economic situation development for the next three months almost unchanged, for the next six months decreased slightly, m-o-m. All in all, confidence in selected services is higher too, y-o-y.

In September, consumer confidence indicator increased by 2.1 points to 106.4, m-o-m, and it is higher, y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in September indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their financial standing as well as worries about rise in the unemployment almost unchanged, m-o-m. The share of respondents intending to save money almost unchanged too, compared to August. The respondents concern about rises in prices increased.

____________________
Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Jiří Obst, tel. +420274054116, e-mail:
jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN.
End of data collection: September 19, 2016
Related publication:
070006-16 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
(https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/business-cycle-surveys)

Next News Release: October 24, 2016

This press release was not edited for language.

 

  • akpr092616.docx
  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 1.1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators (2008 - 2016)
  • Graph 1.2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators (1998 - 2016)
  • Graph 2.1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services (2006 – 2016) – basic indices
  • Graph 2.2 Balances of Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services (2006 – 2016)
  • Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
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Published: 26.09.2016
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


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