Business cycle survey - November 2013

Confidence of entrepreneurs and consumers increased further

25.11.2013
Code: r-1201-13
 




Overall confidence in domestic economy increased in November. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 1.6 points compared to October. Overall, confidence of entrepreneurs increased m-o-m. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased in industry; in trade did not change; in selected services decreased slightly and confidence in construction decreased. Confidence of consumers increased m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are higher, compared to November 2012.

In industry , in November, the assessment of current overall economic situation increased. The assessment of current total demand almost unchanged, the assessment of foreign demand increased slightly. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged. For the next three months, respondents expect an increase in the development of production activity and an increase in the employment too. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are higher than in October. All in all, confidence in industry increased, compared to October, and it is higher y-o-y.

The survey on investment activity in manufacturing industry suggests that for 2014 respondents expect the level of investment should increase by approximately 2%. It refers predominantly to a renewal of production equipment; and less to an extension of production capacities and introducing new technologies.

In construction, in November, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand almost unchanged, compared to October. For the next three months, respondents expect a decrease in the development of construction activity and in the employment too. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months did not change, for the next six months increased. Overall, confidence in construction decreased, compared to October, and it is lower y-o-y.

In trade , in November, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased m-o-m. The stocks did not change. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months decreased, for the next six months did not change, compared to October. In November, confidence in trade did not change m-o-m, and it is lower y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector) , in November, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents did not change, m-o-m. The assessment of demand in November did not change too, its expectations for the next three months decreased slightly. For the next three months, expectations of total economic situation development did not change, for the next six months increased, compared to October. All in all, confidence in selected services decreased slightly m-o-m, but it is higher y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator increased in November, m-o-m, and it is still higher y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in November indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about increase in the unemployment decreased too, compared to October. Worries about their own financial standing did not change m-o-m. The share of respondents intending to save money increased slightly compared to October, the intention to acquire consumer durables almost unchanged m-o-m.


Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: November 18, 2013
Related publication: 1201-13 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: December 2 0, 2013

This press release was not edited for language.



  • akpr112513.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
  • Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
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Published: 25.11.2013
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz