Business cycle survey - July 2012

Overall confidence in economy decreased again

24.07.2012
Code: r-1201-12
 




Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased again in July m-o-m. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased by 1.6 points compared to June. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased slightly in trade and in construction; in selected services and in industry declined. Confidence of consumers increased m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator is lower, compare to July 2011.

In industry , in July, the assessment of current overall economic situation decreased. The assessment of current total demand didn´t change, the assessment of current foreign demand decreased. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods increased. Production capacity utilization in manufacturing industry decreased in July and reached 81.4%; respondents estimate they have work secured less than in the previous quarter. Most important barrier of production still is insufficient demand; it was stated by more than half of respondents. For the next three months, respondents expect a decline in the development of production activity as well as a decrease in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months didn’t change, for the next six months they are lower than in June. All in all, confidence in industry decreased, compare to June, and it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in July, the assessment of current economic situation increased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand increased slightly too, compare to June. Respondents expect an increase in the development of construction activity and an increase in the employment, due to construction season. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months didn´t change, for the next six months are slightly lower than in June. Overall, in July, confidence in construction increased, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation increased slightly, compare to June. The stocks didn´t change. Expectations of the economic situation development for next three months are higher, for the next six month didn´t change, compare to June. In July, confidence in trade increased m-o-m, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In selected services , in July, the assessment of current economic situation almost unchanged, compare to June. The assessment of demand decreased slightly as well as its expectations for the next three months. For the next three as well as six months, expectations of total economic situation development are higher compare to June. Confidence in selected services decreased m-o-m, and it is lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator increased in July, but it is still lower y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in July indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months slightly less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation as well as in their own financial standing, compare to June. Percentage of respondents expecting an increase in unemployment almost unchanged. The share of respondents intending to save money decreased.


Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: July 19, 2012
Related publication: 1201-12 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: August 24, 2012

This press release was not edited for language.



  • akpr072412.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
  • Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
  • Graph 4 Production Capacity Utilisation in Manufacturing Industry
  • Graph 5 Limits of Production in Industry
  • Graph 6 Limits of Production in Construction
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Published: 24.07.2012
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz