Business cycle survey - March 2012

Confidence in economy almost unchanged

26.03.2012
Code: r-1201-12
 




Overall confidence in domestic economy almost unchanged in March. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 0.1 points compared to February. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased in construction, in trade and in selected services; in industry remained unchanged. Confidence of consumers decreased. Composite confidence indicator is lower y-o-y.

In industry , in March, the assessment of current overall economic situation increased slightly again. The assessment of current total and foreign demand improved too. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods decreased again. For the next three months, respondents expect continue to slowdown in the development of production activity as well as a slight decrease in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are slightly lower than in February. All in all, confidence in industry didn´t change due to assessment of demand since last month, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in March, the assessment of current economic situation increased again. Still low assessment of total demand slightly improved again, compare to February. Respondents expect no changes in the development of construction activity and a slight increase in the employment. Works secured by contracts increased slightly. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are lower than in February. Overall, low confidence in construction increased slightly due to construction season, compare to February, and is still lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation almost unchanged, compare to February. The stocks decreased. Expectations of the economic situation development for next three months are higher, for next six months they are lower. In March, confidence in trade increased slightly m-o-m, and it is 0.3 points higher y-o-y.

In selected services , in March, the assessment of current economic situation didn’t change, compare to February. The assessment of demand and its expectations for the next three months increased. For next three as well as six months, expectations of total economic situation development are higher than in February. Confidence in selected services increased m-o-m, but it is 0.3 points lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased in March, and it is still markedly down y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in March indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months more afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation as well as in their own financial standing. Percentage of respondents expecting an increase in unemployment improved too. The share of respondents intending to save money increased slightly. Respondents are more afraid of rises in prices, compare to February.


Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: March 20, 2012
Related publication: 1201-12 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: April 24, 2012

This press release was not edited for language.



  • akpr032612.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
  • Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
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Published: 26.03.2012
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz