Business cycle survey - August 2012

Decrease of confidence in economy has stopped after four months

24.08.2012
Code: r-1201-12
 




Overall confidence in domestic economy increased slightly in August. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 0.2 points compared to July. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased only in selected services; in construction didn´t change; in industry and in trade decreased. Confidence of consumers increased m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are lower, compare to August 2011.

In industry , in August, the assessment of current overall economic situation decreased slightly. The assessment of current total and foreign demand decreased too. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods decreased. For the next three months, respondents expect no changes in the development of production activity and an increase in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are lower than in July. All in all, confidence in industry decreased, compare to July, and it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in August, the assessment of current economic situation increased slightly m-o-m. The assessment of total demand increased too, compare to July. Respondents expect no changes in the development of construction activity and in the employment. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months are lower and for the next six months almost unchanged. Overall, in August, confidence in construction didn´t change and it is still lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation decreased, compare to July. The stocks decreased slightly too. Expectations of the economic situation development for next three as well as six months are higher, compare to July. In August, confidence in trade decreased m-o-m and it is still lower y-o-y.

In selected services , in August, the assessment of current economic situation increased, compare to July. The assessment of demand increased slightly and its expectations for the next three months didn´t change. For the next three as well as six months, expectations of total economic situation development are lower, compare to July. Confidence in selected services increased m-o-m, but it is lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator increased in August, and it is still lower y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in August indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months more afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their own financial standing and afraid of increase in unemployment almost unchanged, though it is still high. The share of respondents intending to save money increased.


Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: August 20, 2012
Related publication: 1201-12 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: September 24, 2012

This press release was not edited for language.



  • akpr082412.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
  • Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
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Published: 24.08.2012
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz