Business cycle survey - May 2021

Confidence in the economy is growing along with the loosening of anti-epidemic measures

24.05.2021
Code: 070008-21
 

The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) – in the basis index form – increased by 5.0 percentage points to 99.7, m-o-m. Both components increased in May. The business confidence indicator increased by 4.3 percentage points to 99.1 (m-o-m), and the consumer confidence indicator increased by 8.9 percentage points to 102.8. Compared to May last year, when the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic took place, the composite indicator, the business indicator, and the consumer confidence indicator are at a significantly higher level.

In industry, business confidence increased, m-o-m. The confidence indicator increased by 1.3 points to 103.6. For the first time since January 2018, more industrial companies rate their current total demand as more than satisfactory, m-o-m. The stock of finished products remained almost unchanged m-o-m. The share of entrepreneurs expecting the growth rate of production activity for the next three months has decreased, m-o-m. Compared to May 2020, business confidence in industry is significantly higher.

Confidence of entrepreneurs in the construction increased m-o-m. The confidence indicator growth by 4.3 points to 115.2. The share of entrepreneurs evaluating their current demand for construction work as insufficient decreased, m-o-m. The share of respondents expecting an increase in the current number of employees in the next three months increased. Compared to May 2020, confidence in the construction industry is significantly higher.

Confidence in the trade sector increased. The confidence indicator growth by 4.4 points to 99.3, m-o-m. The share of entrepreneurs evaluating the overall economic situation significantly increased, m-o-m. The share of entrepreneurs who expect getting better the economic situation for the next three months increased. The stock of goods has not changed, m-o-m. Confidence in trade is significantly higher, y-o-y.

For the second month in a row, the confidence indicator in the selected service sector (including the banking sector) significantly increased. The confidence indicator in May growth by 7.3 points to 92.7. The assessment of the current economic situation has improved, m-o-m. In addition, in May for the first time since October last year, the share of entrepreneurs positively evaluating the current total demand prevailed. The share of entrepreneurs expecting an improvement in demand in the next three months almost unchanged, m-o-m. Compared to May last year confidence indicator in selected service sector in selected services is significantly higher.

Consumer confidence indicator has risen significantly for the second time in a row. The confidence indicator growth by 8.9 points to 102.8. The share of respondents expecting a deterioration in the overall economic situation for the next twelve months decreased for the second month in a row. Compared to April, fears of rising unemployment also fell. Evaluation own financial situation have hardly changed. The number of respondents who expect to save some money in the next twelve months has not changed, m-o-m. Concerns about rising prices remain high. Consumer confidence is significantly higher, y-o-y.
 

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Data for the business and consumer part of the business cycle surveys were collected from 1st to 18th May 2021.
 

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Notes:

Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, Director of Business Statistics Coordination and Business Cycle Surveys Department, tel. +420731439291,  e-mail: juraj.lojka@czso.cz
Contact person: Jiri Obst, Head of Business Cycle Surveys Unit, tel. +420604815440, e-mail: jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, Data Collect consumer survey (https://www.datacollect.cz)
End of data collection: May 18, 2021
Next News Release: June 24, 2021

This press release wasn´t edited for language.
 

Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN.

 

  •      akpr052421.docx

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Chart 1 Confidence indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (2003–2021)
  • Chart 2.1 Confidence Indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services – base indices, seasonally adjusted (2003–2021)
  • Chart 2.2 Balances of seasonally adjusted confidence indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services (2003–2021)
  • Chart 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison, seasonally adjusted (2007–2021)
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Published: 24.05.2021
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz