Harvest forecast - June 2013

Good harvest of cereals and a record-breaking harvest of rape are expected

Pursuant to the first estimates of harvest as at 20 June 2013 it is supposed that the production of basic cereals is to reach an amount of 6 532 thous. tonnes of grain and the production of rape is to be 1 313 thous. tonnes. The production of basic cereals will be up by 887 thous. tonnes (+ 15.7%) compared to that of the last-year. The production of rape is expected to be higher by 204 thous. tonnes (+ 18.4%) compared to that of the last year.

The estimated production of basic cereals (excluding grain maize) in an amount of 6 532 thous. tonnes of grain is by 887 thous. tonnes higher than the last year below-average production. The expected year-on-year increase in the production by 15.7% has been entirely caused by an increased average per hectare yield to 5.00 t/ha (+ 17.1%) because areas under basic cereals were reduced to 1 306 thous. hectares (- 1.3%) compared to the last year ones. Significant drops in areas under crops were recorded for all spring cereals. This year winter cereals winterised in good shape and thus there were no frequent re-sowings in spring on the contrary to the last year.

The estimated production of our country most widely spread crop of winter wheat (31.8% of the total areas under crops in the CR) is 4 265 thous. tonnes and that is by almost one third higher than the last year production (+ 1 030 thous. tonnes, + 31.8%). The production growth is partly affected by enlarged area under this crop to 788 thous. hectares (+ 5.7%), yet, first of all, by a quarter higher assumed per hectare yield of 5.41 t/ha (+ 24.7%).
The sowing area of spring wheat plummeted by 40.9% to 41 thous. hectares compared to the last year and at an assumed per hectare yield of 4.28 t/ha (+ 4.6%) there is an estimated harvest drop by 38.3% to give 175 thous. tonnes.

The expected production of spring barley is estimated in an amount of 1 067 thous. tonnes, it is by 159 thous. tonnes (- 12.9%) lower than the last year one. Its sowing area decreased by 14.6% to 243 thous. hectares and an assumed per hectare yield grew to 4.40 t/ha (+ 2.1%).
This year expected production of winter barley is to be by 28.1% higher year-on-year at the level of 500 thous. tonnes. Similarly, as in the case of winter wheat, the increase is caused, besides an enlarged sowing area, especially by an increase in an assumed per hectare yield higher by 18.3% to 4.71 t/ha

The rye sowing area has been growing for the second year. This year it is cultivated on 37 thous hectares (+ 22.7%). Although its per hectare yield is expected lower, year-on-year, at 4.45 t/ha (- 7.5%) the estimated production will increase to 167 thous. tonnes (+ 13.5%).

The expected harvest of oat shall decrease by 15.7% to 145 thous. tonnes compared to that of 2012. This decrease is due to a reduction of its sowing area by 14.2% to 51 thous. hectares and due to assumed average per hectare yield decreased by 1.8% to 3.33 t/ha as well.

The production of triticale in this year is estimated to 212 thous. tonnes and shall be by 11.6% higher, y-o-y. Its sowing area increased by 5.9% to 47 thous. hectares and the estimated average per hectare yield rose by 5.3% to 4.54 t/ha.

Rape, at present the second most widely spread crop in the Czech Republic, is cultivated on a record-breaking sowing area of 419 thous. hectares (+ 4.4% y-o-y). Because of a very good estimated per hectare yield of 3.13 t/ha (+ 13.4% y-o-y) the expected production of rape is also record-breaking in an amount of 1 313 tonnes with a y-o-y increase of 204 thous. tonnes (+ 18.4%).
The estimated rape production is by 22.1% above the five-year average and by 40.0% above the ten-year one. This is mostly due to enlargement of its sowing area (+ 12.9% and + 28.4%, respectively) and due to increased per hectare yield (+ 8.0% and + 9.6%, respectively).

More detailed information on estimated per hectare yields and production of selected crops in the Czech Republic as a whole and broken by region are given in the following publication ‘Harvest forecasts – operative report as at 20 June 2013’.
Information on the area and structure of sowing areas is released in the publication of ‘Census of sowing areas in the Czech Republic as at 31 May 2013’.




Notes:
Contact person: Jiří Hrbek, (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Data source: the CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 20 June 2013
End of data processing: 10 July 2013
Following outcomes: Harvest forecasts – operative report for June 2013 (contains more detailed information concerning estimates of the per hectare yields and production of selected fruits and early potatoes - also at /csu/czso/odhady-sklizne-operativni-zprava-k-2062013-gbsj26b7fs
Update procedure: The next forecast of the per hectare yields and production of selected agricultural crops as at 15 July 2013 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 13 August 2013.

Published: 11.07.2013
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.