Harvest forecast - June 2010

Harvest will be average, the biggest differences are expected in spring crops

Pursuant to the first estimate of harvest as at 20 June 2010 it is supposed that the production of basic cereals reaches an amount of 6 581 thous. tonnes of grain and the production of rape reaches an amount of 1 143 thous. tonnes. In comparison with the year 2009 finals it is by 347 thous. tonnes less (- 5.0%) for basic cereals, and by 15 thous. tonnes more (+ 1.4%) for rape.

Estimated production of basic cereals in amount of 6 581 thous. tonnes of grain is by 347 thous. tonnes less (- 5.0%) compared to 2009. This decrease is caused by reduction of sown areas by 77 thous. ha (- 5.4%). Estimated yields of basic cereals in amount of 4.87 t/ha are by 0.4% higher than in 2009. Cold May and June with high precipitation had no significant influence on the expected yields.

The production of the most spread cereal in the Czech Republic, winter wheat (31.5% of total areas under farm crops) is expected in amount of 4 174 thous. tonnes, it is by 55 thous. tonnes less (- 1.3%) compared to 2009. The sown area of winter wheat dropped by 8 thous. ha (- 1.0%) in comparison with 2009 and estimated average yields per hectare fell by 0.4% to 5.31 t. This year the sown area of spring wheat shows an extension to 48 thous. ha (+ 27.1%), which is a maximum among all basic cereals. With expected yields of 4.22 t/ha (3.41 t/ha in 2009) the harvest estimate amounts to 203 thous. tonnes (+ 57.4%).

Expected production of spring barley is 189 thous. tonnes, i.e. by 165 thous. tonnes down (- 12.2%) compared to 2009. Lower production is also attributable to smaller sown areas, down by 13% to 279 thous. ha. By contrast, yield of spring barley is expected in amount of 4.27 t/ha (+ 0.9%) compared to 2009. Declining interest of growers in barley proves to be true also in case of winter barley where the sown area was reduced by 18.1% to 110 thous. ha. With currently lower yields of winter barley reaching 4.68 t/ha (- 2.9%) the harvest of this crop is estimated for 515 thous. tonnes, which is by 20.6% less, year-on-year.

As to other basic cereals, downward trend is confirmed in rye growing, where the sown area went down to 30 thous. ha this year (year-on-year decrease by 21.3%), while only in 2006 it was even smaller. With currently decreasing yields per hectare from 4.63 t/ha in the last year to 4.36 t/ha this year the harvest is expected in amount of 132 thous. tonnes (drop by 26.0%).

Today, rape is the second most spread crop in the Czech Republic. Its share in sown areas accounts for 14.8%. Considering the record sown area of 369 thous. ha and the expected yields of 3,10 t/ha (3.18 t/ha in 2009) we can expect record yields amounting to 1 143 thous. tonnes (year-on-year increase by 1.4%).

More detailed information – also by region division – focused on estimates of yields and production of selected kinds of crops and fruit are published in the related data set “Harvest forecast – operational report for June”.
Information on size and structure of sown areas are published in the data set “Register of sown areas in the Czech Republic as at 31 May 2010”.

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Notes :
Contact: Jiří Hrbek, phone (+420) 274 052 33 1, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Source of data: CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 21 June 2010
End of data processing: 8 July 2010
Related publication: Harvest forecast – operational report for June (contains more detailed information concerning estimates of the yields and harvest of selected fruits and early potatoes
Update procedure: Next forecast of the yields and production of selected agricultural crops as at 15 July 2010 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 11 August 2010.

Published: 09.07.2010
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.