Harvest forecast - June 2016

Good Harvests of Cereals and Rape Are Expected

Pursuant to the first estimates of this year harvest as at 10 June 2016 it is supposed that the production of basic cereals is to reach an amount of 6 995 thous. tonnes of grain and the production of rape is to be 1 313 thous. tonnes. The production of basic cereals will be down by 736 thous. tonnes (- 9.5%), compared to the above-average harvest of the last year, and the production of rape is expected to be higher by 57 thous. tonnes (+ 4.5%).

The estimated production of basic cereals (excluding grain maize) in an amount of 6 995 thous. tonnes of grain is by 736 thous. tonnes (- 9.5%) lower than the last year above-average production. The year-on-year decrease in the production has been caused both by an expected decline in the per hectare yield to 5.54 t/ha (- 6.6%) and in areas under these crops by 3.0% to 1 264 thous. hectares. Significant decreases in sowing areas were recorded for spring wheat, spring barley, and oat; the per hectare yield, compared year-on-year (y-o-y), is expected to be lower for all types of basic cereals, except for spring wheat and triticale. This year estimated production of basic cereals is by 1.0% lower than the five-year average yet by 2.7% higher than the ten-year one.

Winter wheat, which is sown on one third of total areas under crops (32.8%), remains the most widely spread crop on our country fields. Its estimated harvest is 4 780 thous. tonnes and that is by 275 thous. tonnes (- 5.4%) lower than that in 2015. The decline in production is determined, by a decrease in the estimated per hectare yield by 9.1% to 5.91 t/ha. The winter wheat sowing area was expanded year-on-year by 4.0% to 809 thous. hectares.

Areas under crop of spring wheat dropped to 31 thous. hectares (- 40.7%) and although the estimated per hectare yield is to be higher at 4.44 t/ha (+ 4.2%) its assumed production is to decline in a significant manner by 38.2% to 136 thous. tonnes.

The expected production of spring barley is in an amount of 1 111 thous. tonnes, it is by 309 thous. tonnes (- 21.8%) lower than the last year one. Its sowing area was reduced by 15.2% to 222 thous. hectares, (y-o-y), and the assumed per hectare yield fell to 5.01 t/ha
(- 7.7%) as well.

This year expected production of winter barley is to be by 4.0% lower, y-o-y, at the level of 548 thous. tonnes. The decrease is caused by an assumed per hectare yield lower by 3.5% to 5.27 t/ha and by a slightly decrease in its sowing area by 0.5% to 104 thous. hectares.

The assumed rye production at 102 thous. tonnes (- 5.6%) is lower than the last year one. The rye sowing area has been reduced to 21 thous. hectares (- 4.7%) this year and is the smallest in the whole history of its monitoring. Its estimated per hectare yield is 4.86 t/ha
(- 1.0%), lower than the last year final yield.

The expected harvest of oat shall decrease by 15.0% to 131 thous. tonnes compared to that of 2015. The assumed decrease goes to a reduced sowing area of 38 thous. hectares (- 11.4%) and estimated lower per hectare yield of 3.50 t/ha (- 4.1%) compared to that of the last year.

The production of triticale in this year is estimated to 187 thous. tonnes (- 7.8%), y-o-y. The estimated average per hectare yield at 4.72 t/ha is the same as the final one in the last year and its sowing area of 40 thous. hectares is by 7.7% lower.

Rape is the most frequently cultivated crop but winter wheat. This year it is sown on 16.0% of the total areas under crops. Its sowing area has been increased by 7.3% to 393 thous. hectares following a two-year decline. Although its estimated per hectare yield of 3.34 t/ha (- 2.6%) is lower, y-o-y, the expected production of rape of 1 313 thous. tonnes is by 57 thous. tonnes higher (+ 4.5%). The estimated rape production is higher than both five-year and ten-year average (+ 2.7% and + 13.9%, respectively).

More detailed information on estimated per hectare yields and production of selected crops in the Czech Republic, as a whole and broken by region, are given in the following publication ‘Harvest Forecasts – Operative Report as at 10 June 2016’. Information on the area and structure of sowing areas is released in the publication of ‘Census of Sowing Areas - 2016’.
 

 

Notes:
Responsible head at the CZSO: Jiří Hrbek, (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Contact person: Jiří Hrbek, (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Data source: Harvest Forecasts and Census of Sowing Areas
End of data collection: 10 June 2016
End of data processing: 30 June 2016
Following outcomes: Harvest Forecasts – Operative Report as at 10 June 2016
https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/harvest-forecast-operative-report-as-at-10-june-2016
Census of Sowing Areas - 2016
https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/areas-under-crops-survey-as-at-31-may-2016
Update procedure: Harvest Forecasts –July 2016; to be published on 12 August 2016

 

Published: 04.07.2016
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.