Harvest forecast - September 2011

This year harvest is one of the best in the last decade

Based on the survey as at 15 September the CZSO estimates that the harvest of total cereals is to reach the amount of 8 200 thous. tonnes and that of rape will give the amount of 1 077 thous. tonnes. Compared to 2010 this means an increase by 19.4% and 3.3% in total cereals and rape, respectively. The expected harvest of total potatoes of 786 thous. tonnes and that of industrial sugar beet at the amount of 3 471 thous. tonnes is by 18.2% and 13.2% higher than in the previous year, respectively.

The estimated harvest of total cereals (including grain maize) of 8200 thous. tonnes is by 1 333 thous. tonnes (by 19.4%) higher than the previous year one while the per hectare yield increased by 0.89 tonne (by 18.7%). The limit of 8 million tonnes of grain harvested of total cereals on the Czech Republic territory has been exceeded solely in the years 1990, 2004, and 2008 so far. The average per hectare yield of total cereals in the aforementioned years was, on the contrary to sowing areas under these crops, lower than that of this year, which is estimated to the record-breaking 5.62 tonnes.
This year first harvest forecast for grain maize of 867 thous. tonnes is by 174 thous. tonnes (by 25.2%) higher compared to the previous year one as a result of both a higher per hectare yield of 7.91 tonnes (6.71 tonnes last year) and an increase in the sowing areas under this crop by 9.7% to 110 thous. hectares.
Estimates of green and silage maize harvest were carried out along with the forecast for grain maize. At the predicted per hectare yield of 39.50 tonnes (33.04 tonnes last year) this production should attain the level of 7 804 thous. tonnes (5 902 thous. tonnes) and thus it should be the highest harvest and the highest per hectare yield in the last decade.
The expected harvest of total potatoes of 786 thous. tonnes is by 121 thous. tonnes (by 18.2%) higher than that in the previous year, while the estimated per hectare yield is 29.72 t/ha (24.56 t/ha last year). The estimated production of industrial sugar beet of 3 471 thous. tonnes grew by 406 thous. tonnes (by 13.2%), compared to the previous year final production both due to expanded sowing areas under this crop by 2 thous. hectares (by 3.4%) and, first of all, due to the predicted per hectare yield of 59.51 tonnes, other highest one in history.
Within the September survey forecasts were performed for oleaginous crops of rape, sunflower for seed, and poppy. For rape, the harvest expected is the second highest at 1 077 thous. tonnes. Compared to the last year this means an increase by 34 thous. tonnes (by 3.3%). The estimated production of sunflower for seed is 72 thous. tonnes (57 thous. tonnes last year) at the per hectare yield of 2.54 t/ha (2.11 t/ha last year). The forecast for the poppy production is 27 thous. tonnes, which is by 3 thous. tonnes higher than in the previous year. This good poppy harvest is assumed exclusively due to the per hectare yield of 0.85 tonnes, the second highest one in the last decade, because this year, compared to the last year, the sowing area of poppy was significantly reduced by 20 thous. hectares (by 38.4%) to 31 thous. hectares.

More detailed information, also broken by region, as well as dealing with estimates of the per hectare yields and harvest forecasts for selected fruit and vegetables varieties are given in the follow-up publication of “Harvest Forecasts – Operational Report for September”.

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Methodological notes :
Contact person: Jiří Hrbek, phone (+420) 274 052 331, e -mail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO sample survey in businesses farming on agricultural land
End of data collection: 15 September 2011
End of data processing: 11 October 2011
Related publication: Harvest Forecasts – Operational Report for September also at /csu/czso/harvest-forecast-operative-report-20-june-2011-fwbn0ldv8x )
Update procedure: The next forecast of the yields and harvests of selected crops as at 15 October 2011 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 7 November 2011.

Published: 12.10.2011
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.