Harvest forecast - June 2012

Estimated production of basic cereals is lower than the record–breaking harvest of the last year

Pursuant to the first estimate of harvest as at 20 June 2012 it is supposed that the production of basic cereals is to reach an amount of 5 865 thous. tonnes of grain and the production of rape is to be 1 117 thous. tonnes. The production of basic cereals will be down by 1 341 thous. tonnes
(- 18.6%) compared to the last-year extremely high harvest and will also be below the five-year average (- 5.7%). The production of rape is expected to be higher by 70 thous. tonnes (+ 6.7%) compared to that of the last year.

The estimated production of basic cereals (excluding grain maize) in an amount of 5 865 thous. tonnes of grain is by 18.6% lower, which means a decrement of 1 341 thous. tonnes compared to the last-year extremely high harvest. The expected production is also lower compared to the five-year average (- 5.7%). This year decrease in production is caused, first of all, by lower expected yields of all basic cereals, which are affected by adverse weather in the course of vegetation. The estimated average per hectare yield of basic cereals is 4.43 t/ha that is by 17.0% lower compared to that of 2011. The sowing area of basic cereals decreased by 2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) that means to 1 323 thous. hectares. The area of winter cereals is smaller as they were partly replaced by spring cereals because being in bad shape after winterising.

This year there is a significant drop in the production of the most spread cereal in the Czech Republic, winter wheat (30.1% of total sowing areas of agricultural crops) expected. The production in an amount of 3 448 thous. tonnes is by 1 213 thous. tonnes (- 26%) lower than that in 2011. The sowing area of winter wheat decreased by 60 thous. hectares (- 7.4%) to 746 thous. hectares and the estimated average per hectare yield was reduced by 20.1% to 4.62 t/ha.
The sowing area of spring wheat increased to 69 thous. hectares (+ 21.0%) this year and at an assumed per hectare yield of 4.03 t/ha (- 8.6%) there is an estimated harvest increase by 10.6% to give 280 thous. tonnes.

The expected production of spring barley is estimated in an amount of 1 246 thous. tonnes, it is by 100 thous. tonnes (- 7.4%) down. Its sowing areas enlarged by 4.5% to 284 thous. hectares and an assumed per hectare yield dropped to 4.38 t/ha (- 11.5%). The sowing area of winter barley was reduced by 2.8% to 98 thous. hectares. At the estimated per hectare yield of 4.11 t/ha (- 11.4%) this year expected harvest shall by 13.9% lower at the level of 403 thous. tonnes.

This year rye is cultivated on 31 thous hectares which is the y-o-y- increase in this crop sowing area by 22.3%. Although the per hectare yield is expected lower at 4.44 t/ha (- 6.3%) the estimated production will increase to 136 thous. tonnes (+ 14.4%).

The expected harvest of oat shall increase by 4.2% to 171 thous. tonnes compared to that of 2011. This increase is due to an increase in the sowing area to 51 thous. hectares (+ 12.2%) and due to assumed average per hectare yield of 3.37 t/ha (- 7.2%).

The production of triticale in this year is estimated to 183 thous. tonnes and shall be by 7.1% lower, y-o-y. Its sowing area increased slightly (+ 1.5%) and the estimated average per hectare yield declined by 8.4% to 4.14 t/ha compared to the previous year.

Rape is the second most widely spread crop in the Czech Republic with its share of 16.2% in the total sowing area. The expected production of rape is in an amount of 1 117 tonnes with a y-o-y increase of 70 thous. tonnes (+ 6.7%). This year rape is cultivated on the record-breaking area of 401 thous. hectares (+ 7.5%) and an assumed per hectare yield of 2.78 t/ha is approximately at the same level as that in 2011 (- 0.7%).

More detailed information on estimated per hectare yields and production of selected crops in the Czech Republic as a whole and in regional breakdown are given in the following publication ‘Harvest forecasts – operative report as at 20 June 2012’.
Information on the area and structure of sowing areas is released in the publication of ‘Census of sowing areas in the Czech Republic as at 31 May 2012’.



Notes:
Contact person: Jiří Hrbek, (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Data source: the CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 20 June 2012
End of data processing: 10 July 2012
Following outcomes: Harvest forecasts – operative report for June 2012 (contains more detailed information concerning estimates of the per hectare yields and production of selected fruits and early potatoes - also at /csu/czso/odhady-sklizne-operativni-zprava-k-2062012-6dlnkqiwzh )
Update procedure: The next forecast of the per hectare yields and production of selected agricultural crops as at 15 July 2012 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 13 August 2012.

Published: 11.07.2012
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.