Harvest forecast - July 2012

Forecasted below-average production of basic cereals confirmed

Based on the second estimate of harvest of 2012 as at 15 July 2012, it is expected that the production of basic cereals is to reach 5 716 thousand tonnes of grain and the production of rape 1 073 thousand tonnes. Compared to the above-average harvest of last year, the production of basic cereals will be down by 1 490 thousand tonnes (-20.7%), while rape up by 27 thousand tonnes (+2.5%). Estimated poppy production of 14 thousand tonnes is a half lower, year-on-year, mainly due to a marked reduction of the sowing area to 18 thousand ha (-41.7%).

The estimated production of basic cereals (excluding grain maize) will drop y-o-y by 1 490 thousand tonnes to 5 716 thousand tonnes (-20.7%) due to unfavourable weather conditions during the vegetation period and it will be even lower than the five-year average (-5.7%). It is probably going to be the lowest harvest since 2007. The sowing areas of basic cereals decreased by 2.0%, y-o-y; the areas of winter cereals are smaller and were partially replaced by spring cereals. The expected average per hectare yield of basic cereals of 4.32 tonnes is markedly lower than in 2011 (-19.1%).

The most significant drop of production, compared to 2011, is expected at the most spread cereal in the Czech Republic, winter wheat. The forecasted harvest of 3 322 thousand tonnes is by 1 338 thousand tonnes lower (-28.7%). The decrease is influenced besides a lower sowing area (-7.4%) especially by a significant decrease of the yield to 4.45 t/ha (-23.0%). Lower production is expected also at spring barley: 1 227 thousand tonnes (-8.9%) at 4.31 t per hectare yield (-12.9%) and enlargement of the sowing area by 4.5% at the same time.

Lower per hectare yields compared to 2011 are expected also at other types of cereals: winter barley 4.02 t (-13.4%), oats 3.32 t (-8.5%), rye 4.36 t (-8.0%), triticale 4.19 t (-7.3%), and spring wheat 4.13 t (-6.3%). Winter barley and triticale are also expected to have lower production (-15.7% and -5.9%, respectively). On the contrary, owing to the enlargement of the sowing areas, the harvest will be higher, y-o-y, for spring wheat (+13.3%), rye (+12.4%), and oats (+2.6%). The overall increase of production of these three types of cereals in the amount of 53 thousand tonnes is, however, insignificant compared to the y-o-y fall of production of other types of cereals by 1 543 thousand tonnes.

Rape is expected to produce 1 073 thousand tonnes, which is a y-o-y increase by 27 thousand tonnes (+2.5%). The increase of production is influenced by an enlargement of the sowing area to the record-breaking 401 thousand ha (+7.5%) despite a y-o-y drop of the estimated per hectare yield to 2.67 t (-4.6%).

Production of poppy is expected to drop y-o-y by almost a half to 14 thousand tonnes due to a marked reduction of the sowing area to 18 thousand ha (-41.7%) and lower estimated per hectare yield of 0.75 t (-11.8%).

More detailed information concerning also estimated per hectare yields and production of early potatoes, peas, selected fruits and vegetables in the Czech Republic as a whole and in regional breakdown are given in the following publication ‘Harvest forecasts – operative report as at 15 July 2012’.


Notes:
Contact person: Jiří Hrbek, phone number (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Data source: the CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 16 July 2012
End of data processing: 10 August 2012
Related publications: Harvest forecasts – operative report for July 2012 (contains more detailed information concerning estimates of the per hectare yields and production of selected fruits, vegetables, and early potatoes - also at http://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/odhady-sklizne-operativni-zprava-k-1572012-3p9sm92om9 )
Update procedure: The next forecast of the per hectare yields and production of selected agricultural crops as at 15 August 2012 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 7 September 2012.

Published: 13.08.2012
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.