On the revision of the time series of selected quarterly national accounts indicators
30 June 2004
On the revision of the time series of selected quarterly national accounts indicators
Seminar on the procedures for the chain-linking of indicators into time series
Seminar on the procedures for the chain-linking of indicators into time series
The estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2004, published by the Czech Statistical Office on 10 June this year, is followed up today by the revised time series of selected quarterly national accounts indicators. The series comprises GDP expenditure components at current and constant prices, starting from the first quarter of 2000 for the time being. Related indicators such as GDP per capita etc. are part of the revision.
The indicators at constant prices are given in terms of average prices of the previous year and average prices of 2000, as requested by Eurostat. The level and year-on-year development were determined by converting the individual indicators into the previous year’s average prices as the first step and then by chain-linking them with the help of corresponding annual average deflators. This procedure is an application of the method for the calculation of price-comparable times series of indicators recommended by Eurostat and the International Monetary Fund and presented under the title Annual Overlap. While the method is rather more difficult to apply than the hitherto used basic approach, it yields more accurate year-on- development estimates than the calculation based on the approach used before. For the latter derived constant prices by converting prices of a current period into the conditions existing at the basic one (into average prices of 1995 in our practice). However, the loss of additivity of the total and individual components, which gives rise to a discrepancy recorded as a separate item, is its drawback.
Compared to the preliminary version of 10 June, the revised version brings more accurate indicators on change in inventories and gross domestic products for the second and third quarters of 2002 and 2003, permitted by new findings. The impact of these adjustments, which compensate each other, on the published year-on-year growth rates for respective quarters is far from being significant, which is why the estimate of the Q1 2004 development remained unchanged.
The Czech Statistical Office is now engaged in revising the quarterly times series of gross value added broken down by kind of activity and in prolonging all quarterly time series back to the year 1995. The resulting data will be brought out on 10 September along with the estimates of GDP and its components for the second quarter of 2004. Seasonally adjusted data will be made available at the same time. This will complete the revision of the time series of quarterly national accounts indicators.
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The Czech Statistical Office invites all who are interested in various procedures used to chain-linking indicators into time series at constant prices of a given year to attend the seminar to be held at the new building of the CZSO on 15 July this year (Thursday, 10.00). CZSO experts will present basic principles of the application of price indices and answer questions related to the revision of time series of national accounts indicators. Call 274 052 865 (Jan Heller, director, National Accounts Branch) for more information or send e-mail ( heller@gw.czso.cz ) to confirm your attendance.
CSO Press Department
