Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal - No. 2/2021

Code: 320197-21
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Contact: Mgr. Ing. Jiří Novotný

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PriceIndices – a New R Package for Bilateral and Multilateral Price Index Calculations
Jacek Białek
In economic theory the Phillips curve presents the relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation
rate. The inflation and unemployment rate bring important information about the stages of the economic
cycle. This article attempts to find an answer to the question of whether the development of the difference
between the unemployment and inflation rate, the so-called signal gap, may be an indicator of changes
in the economic cycle. Quarterly data on the Czech Republic, France, Great Britain and the Republic of Korea
were used to verify this hypothesis.

Dynamic linear model, unemployment rate, inflation rate, signal gap, GDP

Multichannel Marketing Attribution Using Markov Chains for E-Commerce
Lukáš Kakalejčík, Jozef Bucko, Paulo A. A. Resende
This paper deals with inflation forecasting and targeting performance of selected Central and Eastern-European
central banks. Using battery of absolute and scaled forecasting errors along with significance tests, we have
evaluated inflation predictions on the optimal monetary policy transmission horizon (14–16 months), as well
as adherence to long-term inflation targets. Out of the evaluated Czech, Hungarian and Polish central banks,
complemented by the European Central Bank for comparison, it was found, that even though the bank´s
performance improved during the last decade, notably with the forecasting component, some issues are
still present. These are mostly connected to the inflation targeting mechanism, which was found to contain
systemic bias in the case of the Czech national bank, as well as failing in comparison with the naïve benchmark
in the case of the European Central Bank. Both outcomes pave the way for further investigation in a wider
economical context.

Central bank, Inflation forecasting, Inflation targeting, Forecasting error

Ramadan Effect on Prices and Production: Case of Turkey
Cem Eyerci, A. Ömer Toprak, Ömer Demir

The detection of seasonal effects is essential in economic forecasting. However, the lack of indicators produced
referencing calendars other than the Gregorian system makes it hard to observe the impact of the cultural,
national, and religious days that annually shift in the Gregorian calendar, on the economy. Ramadan, the ninth
month of the lunar-based Hijri calendar, has an impact on many issues, namely the Ramadan effect, due to
the changes in the daily practices of the fasting Muslim people. We checked the existence of the Ramadan
effect on consumer prices and industrial production in Turkey by reconstructing the monthly indicators
in the Hijri calendar and testing the significance of the differences between their increase rates in Ramadan
and other months. We observed that the Food Price Index and prices of some goods increase, and production
decrease in Ramadan, significantly more than in other months. Considering the Ramadan effect would improve
the accuracy of the inflation forecasting and seasonal adjustment models.

Consumer prices, Hijri calendar, industrial production, Ramadan effect, seasonal adjustment


Financial Development and Poverty Reduction in Crisis Periods: Panel Data Evidence from Six Countries of ECOWAS
Maroua Chaouachi, Slim Chaouachi

In this study, we analyze the direct effect of financial development on poverty in crisis periods for a panel
of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sample composed of six countries (Ivory Coast,
Senegal, Gambia, Ghana, Mali and Benin) during the period 1996–2015, using econometric tests and static
panel data. The main empirical result of this paper is that the financial development indicators and poverty
proxies are significant and negatively correlated. The findings support the fact that financial development
reduces directly poverty by increasing access for poor population to various sources of financing. As a result,
finance makes transactions easier, provides opportunities for smoothing consumption and asset accumulation,
and enables poor households to cope better with shocks, thus reducing the risk of recrudescence into poverty.

Poverty, financial development, crisis, panel data, econometric tests, ECOWAS countries


Modelling Structural Relations for Tourism Demand: the Central European Cases
Lukáš Malec, Václav Žák

This application study concentrates on causal links, directed from economic parameters to internal Czech
and Slovak tourism for both, short- as well as long-term changes in time series. As tourism forms a fundamental
part of the service industry with many social and environmental connections, the structural equation modelling
(SEM) methodology, i.e. simultaneous equations covering the number of fundamental and derived variables,
is used. Taking into account the market specifics with relative close history, the identical models for countries
are selected, enabling a precise mutual comparison. The data on a ratio of non-residents and residents, together
with nights spent and other parameters, are examined for first as well as seasonal differencing. For instance,
the destination living cost, relative wages and salaries, the balance of payments, labour productivity, trade
openness and harmonized unemployment as exogenous variables, are introduced. Covering short and long
horizons, labour productivity is a fundamental parameter in the Czech Republic. Significant relations proved
differently between countries presented by trade openness as a factor of the global economy. The members
of destination management or other authorities can appreciate the results, concentrated especially on various
accommodation establishments and hospitality.

Structural equation modelling, causality, simultaneous equations, tourism


Multivariate Analysis of Fertility: an Application of the Generalized Poisson Regression Model
Adelaide Agyeman

Total fertility rate (TFR) is a standard measure commonly used to estimate fertility levels and trends. However,
TFR is a period measure and does not offer reasons for observed variations in fertility rates and trends. Using
data from the 2017 Ghana Maternal Health Survey (GMHS), this study examines current fertility levels
and trends of ever-married women and employs a generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model to analyze
the determinants of fertility. Findings suggest that the current fertility level of 5.4 for ever-married women
is high. The results also reveal that age at first marriage, educational level, household wealth, area of residence,
use of contraceptives; and ownership and use of a bank account are significant determinants of total fertility
(p<0.05) and are thus factors that affect the fertility levels of women. The study concludes that the GPR analysis
provides a clearer picture of the nature and determinants of fertility compared to the standard TFR analysis.

Total fertility, generalized Poisson regression model, determinants, sub-Saharan Africa

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Published: 18.06.2021
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.