Harvest forecast - September 2012

Expected harvests of potatoes and industrial sugar beet below the level of the last year

Estimated harvests as at 15 September confirmed a year-on-year drop in the harvest of total cereals, including maize, by one fifth to 6 539 thous. tonnes. Compared to 2011, the expected harvests of root crops are also lower; that of industrial sugar beet at the amount of 3 450 thous. tonnes (-11.5%) and that of potatoes at the amount of 654 thous. tonnes (-18.8%). An increase in production is expected in green and silage maize by 6.7% to give 8 307 thous. tonnes.

Cereals
The estimated harvest of total cereals (including grain maize) of 6 539 thous. tonnes is by 1 731 thous. tonnes (-20.9%) lower than the previous year one and thus it will be probably the third lowest harvest in the last decade. This significant decline in production is mostly caused by wheat (−1 335 thous. tonnes) and grain maize (−280 thous. tonnes). The total areas under cereals were reduced by 1.8% compared to those in 2011 and the estimated average per hectare yield from the sowing areas under these crops of 4.56 t/ha is substantially lower (−19.6%) as well.
This year first harvest forecast for grain maize of 783 thous. tonnes is by 26.4% lower compared to the previous year one. The sowing areas of grain maize of 110 thous. hectares stayed almost at the level of the last year yet the estimated per hectare yield of 7.15 t/ha will be markedly lower (−18.7%).

Green and Silage Maize
Estimates of green and silage maize harvests are higher year-on-year. The sowing areas were expanded by 17 thous. hectares (+8.8%) to 215 thous. hectares. Because the number of heads of cattle has remained stable the fact indicates this crop has been more and more used for energy generation. Although the predicted per hectare yield is 38.66 t/ha (-7.5%) is lower this year production is expected at the amount of 8 307 thous. tonnes (+6.7%).

Root Crops
This year harvests of root crops – potatoes and industrial sugar beet – are expected to be lower year-on-year. Compared to a five-year average this means a drop in production of potatoes by 14.3%, and, on the contrary, in the case of industrial sugar beet it is an increase by 9.3%.
The expected harvest of total potatoes of 654 thous. tonnes is by 152 thous. tonnes (-18.8%) lower than that in the previous year. This drop is affected by a decrease of the per hectare yield by 9.3% to 27.63 t/ha and a reduction of the crop sowing area to 24 thous. hectares (-10.6%). The areas under crop in the case of potatoes have been permanently reduced. This year potatoes have been cultivated on an area by almost 40% smaller than that ten years ago.
The estimated production of industrial sugar beet of 3 450 thous. tonnes is to be by 449 thous. tonnes lower (-11.5%), compared to the previous year final production, due to a predicted decline in the per hectare yield to 56.41 t/ha (-15.6%). The areas under industrial sugar beet were expanded by 4.9% to 61 thous. hectares, year-on-year.

Oleaginous Crops
The production of rape seed will be higher this year and, conversely, there is expected a decline in harvests of sunflower for seed and poppy seed.
The rape harvest is expected to be 1 127 thous. to be by 81 thous. tonnes higher than that in the last year (+7.7%). An increase in the production is due to expanded areas under this crop to the record-breaking 401 thous. hectares (+7.5%). The per hectare yield of rape shall be higher by 0.4% to reach 2.81 t/ha.
The estimated production of sunflower for seed is 55 thous. tonnes is by 23.0% lower than that in the last year at the estimated per hectare yield of 2.22 t/ha (-10.5%) and at sowing areas of 25 thous. hectares (-13.7%).
The forecast for the poppy production is to drop year-on-year by approximately a half to 13 thous. tonnes, as a result of substantially reduced sowing areas to 18 thous. hectares
(-41.7%) as well as a lower estimated per hectare yield of 0.70 t/ha (−17.6%).

More detailed information, also broken by region, as well as dealing with estimates of the per hectare yields and harvest forecasts for selected fruit and vegetables varieties are given in the follow-up publication of “Harvest Forecasts – Operational Report as at 15 September 2012”.


Notes:
Contact person: Jiří Hrbek, (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Data source: the CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 17 September 2012
End of data processing: 11 October 2012
Following outcomes: Harvest forecasts – operative report as at 15 September 2012 - also at /csu/czso/harvest-forecast-operative-report-as-at-15-september-2012-gzygzitbfl )
Update procedure: The next forecast of the per hectare yields and production of selected agricultural crops as at 15 October 2012 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 7 November 2012.

Published: 12.10.2012
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.