Harvest forecast - July 2016

Harvest is delayed, however, cereals and oleaginous crops harvest estimate is favourable

12.08.2016
Code: 270150-16
 

Based on the second estimate of this year’s harvest as at 15 July 2016 it is expected that the production of basic cereals is to reach an amount of 7 209 thous. tonnes and the production of rape is to be 1 305 thous. tonnes. Compared to the above-average harvest of the previous year, the production of basic cereals is down by 521 thous. tonnes (-6.7%). The production of rape will be by 49 thous. tonnes (+3.9%) higher compared to the previous year. Poppy seed harvest is expected to be 27 thous. tonnes, which is by 2.5% more than the last year.

The estimated production of basic cereals (excluding grain maize) in an amount of 7 209 thous. tonnes of grain is by 6.7% lower than the last year’s above-average production. The expected drop of production by 521 thous. tonnes is due to both a decrease in the per hectare yield by 3.7% to 5.71 tonnes and a decrease in the sowing area by 3.0% to 1 264  thous. hectares. This year’s estimated production of basic cereals is higher than the last five-year average as well as the ten-year one (+2.0% and +5.9%, respectively).

According to the July estimate, the harvest of winter wheat is expected to be 4 890 thous. tonnes, which is by 165 thous. tonnes less than the last year (-3.3%). The drop in production is due to a decrease in the per hectare yield to 6.04 tonnes (-7.1%), while the sowing area has been extended to 809 thous. hectares (+4.0%). Winter barley is to be harvested in an amount of 607 thous. tonnes (+6.3%) with the 5.83 tonnes per hectare yield (+6.8%), triticale 197 thous. tonnes (-2.6%) with 4.99 tonnes per hectare yield (+5.7%), and rye 110 thous. tonnes (+1.7%) with 5.24 tonnes per hectare yield (+6.7%).

Spring cereals harvest estimate is much lower, year-on-year, especially due to a significant reduction of the sowing areas. Spring barley is estimated to be harvested in an amount of 1 126 thous. tonnes, by 295 thous. tonnes less than last year (-20.7%), namely owing to a drop in the per hectare yield to 5.08 tonnes (-6.4%) as well as the sowing area to 222 thous. hectares (-15.2%). Spring wheat is expected to be harvested in an amount of 139 thous. tonnes, by 36.8% less than last year. It is absolutely due to the massive reduction of the sowing area by 40.7% to 31 thous. hectares at an increase of the per hectare yield by 6.6% to 4.54 tonnes. Oats will be harvested in an amount of 141 thous. tonnes (-8.8%) with the per hectare yield of 3.75 tonnes (+2.7%) and the sowing area of 38 thous. hectares (-11.4%).

The rape production is estimated to be 1 305 thous. tonnes, which is by 3.9% higher than last year thanks to an expansion of the sowing area by 7.3% to 393 thous. ha. The per hectare yield dropped by 3.2%, y-o-y, to 3.32 tonnes. When compared to a five-year average, the estimated rape harvest is by 2.1% higher; a ten-year average is exceeded even by 13.3% (the per hectare yield +5.4%, sowing area +7.4%). This year’s sowing area of rape is by more than a third larger compared to the one ten years ago (+34.5%).  

This year’s harvest of poppy seed is estimated to be 27 thous. tonnes, which is by +2.5% higher than the last year, because the sowing area has been extended to 36 thous. ha (+8.9%) at an expected per hectare yield of 0.77 tonnes (-6.1%). Areas under this traditional crop have been regularly extended already for four successive years. When compared to 2008, when poppy was grown on a record area of 70 thous. hectares, however, this year’s area is only a half of that (-49.1%).

More detailed information on estimated per hectare yields and production of peas, selected varieties of fruit and vegetables crops in the Czech Republic, as a whole and broken down by region, are given in the following publication ‘Harvest Forecasts – Operative Report as at 15 July 2016’.

________________________
Notes:
Responsible head at the CZSO: Jiří Hrbek, (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz

Contact person: Jiří Hrbek, (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Data source: Harvest Forecasts and Areas under Crops Survey
End of data collection: 15 July 2016
End of data processing: 11 August 2016
Following outcomes: Harvest Forecasts – Operative Report as at 15 July 2016

https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/harvest-forecast-operative-report-as-at-15-july-2016

Areas under Crops Survey – 2016
https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/areas-under-crops-survey-as-at-31-may-2016

Update procedure: Harvest Forecasts – Operative Report as at 15 August 2016; to be published on 9 September 2016  

  • askl081216.docx
  • Annex:
  • Table 1 Yield and production forecast (selected crops, in tonnes per hectare and tonnes, indices)
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Published: 12.08.2016
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz