Harvest forecast - July 2013

Estimation of good harvest of basic cereals and rape confirmed

According to the second estimate of harvest as at 15 July 2013, production of basic cereals is expected to reach the amount of 6 501 thous. tonnes of grain and the production of rape 1 313 thous. tonnes. Compared to the previous year, the production of basic cereals will be up by 857 thous. tonnes (+15.2%) and production of rape by 204 thous. tonnes (+18.4%).

The estimated production of basic cereals (excluding grain maize) in the amount of 6 501 thous. tonnes of grain is by 857 thous. tonnes higher than last year (+15.2%). Compared to 2012, sowing areas of basic cereals were slightly reduced to 1 306 thous. hectares (-1.3%). The expected average per hectare yield of basic cereals in the amount of 4.98 tonnes is by 16.6% higher, y-o-y.

The year-on-year increase in the production by almost a third is expected at winter wheat, which is the most widely spread crop in the Czech Republic. The forecasted production of 4 251 thous. tonnes is by 1 016 thous. tonnes higher (+31.4%). The production growth is contributed to mainly by the expected per hectare yield of 5.39 tonnes, which is higher almost by a quarter (+24.2%) as well as a larger sowing area, which has been widened by 5.7% to 788 thous. hectares.

Expected production of other winter crops is also higher, y-o-y; winter barley is estimated in the amount of 493 thous. tonnes (+26.3%), triticale 208 thous. tonnes (+9.4%), and rye 169 thous. tonnes (+14.7%). Sowing areas of all winter crops increased, y-o-y; per hectare yields of winter barley also grew to 4.46 tonnes (+16.6%) and triticale to 4.45 tonnes (+3.2%), while forecasted per hectare yield of rye of 4.50 tonnes is by 6.4% lower.

Estimated production of spring types of crops is lower, y-o-y, despite an increase in estimated per hectare yields as a result of the reduction of sowing areas. Spring barley production is expected to be 1 059 thous. tonnes (-13.6%) at the per hectare yield of 4.36 tonnes (+1.2%), spring wheat 172 thous. tonnes (-39.6%) at the per hectare yield of 4.19 tonnes (+2.4%), and oats 149 thous. tonnes (-13.3%) at the per hectare yield of 3.42 tonnes (+0.9%).

Production of rape is estimated to be 1 313 thous. tonnes, which is by 204 thous. tonnes higher, y-o-y (+18.4%). The increase in production is owed to an increase in the expected per hectare yield to 3.14 tonnes (+13.8%) as well as thanks to enlargement of the sowing area to the record 419 thous. hectares (+4.4%).

The expected production of poppy will increase by 9.2%, y-o-y, to 14 thous. tonnes. Areas under poppy were widened by 10.3%, y-o-y, to 20 thous. hectares and the estimated yield of 0.69 tonnes per hectare is by 1.4% lower, y-o-y.

The crop, production of which is negatively influenced by climatic changes this year, is early potatoes. The average per hectare yield of early potatoes is estimated to be only 15.71 tonnes, which is by 1.80 tonnes (-10.3%) less, y-o-y; compared to the ten-year average it is a 2.14 t (-12.0%) drop. The total production of early potatoes is expected to be 22 thous. tonnes, i.e. by 0.3% lower, y-o-y.

More detailed information on estimated per hectare yields and production of peas and of selected kinds of fruits and vegetables for the Czech Republic as a whole and broken down by region are given in the following publication ‘Harvest forecasts – operative report as at 15 July 2013’.


Notes:
Contact person: Jiří Hrbek, (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Data source: the CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 15 July 2013
End of data processing: 12 August 2013
Related publications: Harvest forecasts – operative report for July 2013 (contains more detailed information concerning estimates of per hectare yields and production of selected fruits and early potatoes - also at: /csu/czso/odhady-sklizne-operativni-zprava-k-1572013-db32ojylad
Update procedure: The next forecast of the per hectare yields and production of selected agricultural crops as at 15 August 2013 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 9 September 2013.

Published: 13.08.2013
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.