Harvest forecast - July 2011

Yield forecasts for basic cereals higher than last year yields

According to the second estimates of per hectare yields as at 15 July 2011 the CZSO expects that the production of basic cereals (excluding maize) is to reach the amount of 6 567 thous. tonnes, that means an increase by 20 thous. tonnes (+ 0.3%) compared to the June estimates. On the contrary, the estimated production of rape was reduced to 1 036 thous. tonnes (by - 1.9%). Rainy weather causes harvests are delayed and if there is a similar amount of precipitation in the rest of summer it may affect, first of all, quality of harvested crops in adverse manner.

The July harvest forecast of basic cereals in the amount of 6 567 thous. tonnes is by 394 thous. tonnes higher (+ 6.4%) compared to that of the previous year. The sowing area of basic cereals has been decreased by a minimum (- 0.1%) compared to 2010 yet the estimated per hectare yield of basic cereals of 4.87 t/ha is higher by 6.6% compared to 2010.

The production of winter wheat is expected in the amount of 4 227 thous. tonnes, which is by 5.9% higher year-on year. A higher harvest is estimated for spring barley (the second most widely spread cereal crop), which production in the amount of 1 205 thous. tonnes represents an increase by 10.7% compared to the previous year. The estimated per hectare yield of winter wheat is assessed to 5.25 t/ha (last year it was 5.08 t/ha); that of spring barley is estimated to be 4.43 t/ha (last year it was 3.91 t/ha).

This year higher yields are expected for other crops of basic cereals compared to 2010 as well. Oats with the estimated 3.40 t/ha recorded the highest increase in the per hectare yield (+ 28.8%) and their anticipated harvest shall be 154 thous. tonnes (by 11.3% more than the previous year). The second highest growth in the per hectare yield is indicated for spring wheat in the amount of 4.11 t/ha, which means an increase by 17.1%. The year-on-year increase in its harvest shall attain 67 thous. tonnes (+ 39.9%) also due to the enlarged sowing area of this crop by 19.3%.

The rape production is estimated in the amount of 1 036 thous. tonnes, that is by 0.6% less than the previous year, while its per hectare yield shall be 2.77 t/ha (it was 2.83 t/ha previous year). The decline caused by the per hectare yield lower by 2.1% is partly compensated by the sowing area enlarged by 5 thous. hectares (+ 1.2%) here.

The harvest estimate for poppy of 24 thous. tonnes shall be by 1.7% higher than that of the previous year. Here a significant reduction of the sowing area to 31 thous. hectares (- 38.4%) is compensated by a higher estimated per hectare yield of 0.76 t/ha (increased by 65.2%).

More detailed information, also broken by region, as well as dealing with estimates of per hectare yields and harvest forecasts of early potatoes, field pea, and selected fruit and vegetables varieties are given in the follow-up publication of “Harvest Forecasts – Operational Report for July”.

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Methodological notes :
Contact person: Jiří Hrbek, phone (+420) 274 052 331, e-m ail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO sample survey in businesses farming on agricultural land
End of data collection: 15 July 2011
End of data processing: 10 August 2011
Related publication: Harvest Forecasts – Operational Report for July (contains more detailed information on estimated per hectare yields and harvest forecasts of selected fruit varieties and early potatoes – also at /csu/czso/harvest-forecast-operative-report-15-july-2011-i8c0qdz7q5 )
Update procedure: The next forecast of the yields and harvests of selected crops as at 15 August 2011 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 8 September 2011.

Published: 11.08.2011
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.