Harvest forecast - June 2011

Harvest forecasts for basic cereals and rape higher than last year harvest

According to the first estimates of harvest as at 20 June 2011 it is expected that the production of basic cereals (excluding maize) is to reach the amount of 6 547 thous. tonnes and the production of rape 1 056 thous. tonnes. In comparison with the last year harvest it is by 374 thous. tonnes higher (+6.1%) for basic cereals and by 14 thous. tonnes (+1.3%) for rape.

The harvest forecast of basic cereals in the amount of 6 547 thous. tonnes is by 374 thous. tonnes higher (+6.1%) compared to that of the previous year. It is influenced by higher expected yields (for all basic cereals excluding winter barley). The sowing area of basic cereals in total, however, has been decreasing every year since 2007. The estimated yield of basic cereals of 4.85 t/ha is higher by 6.1% compared to 2010. Up to now, the weather during the growing season has not damaged the expected harvest of cereals much.

The production of the most common cereal in the Czech Republic, winter wheat (32.4% of the total area under crops) is expected in the amount of 4 218 thous. tonnes, which is by 225 thous. tonnes more (+5.6%) compared to 2010. The sowing area increased by 20 thous. ha (+2.6%) and the estimated average per hectare yield increased by 3.1% to 5.24 t. This year, also the sowing area of spring wheat shows an expansion by 9 thous. ha (+19.3%) and with the expected yield of 4.14 t/ha (3.51 t/ha in 2010) the harvest estimate amounts to 238 thous. tonnes (+41.0%). Sowing areas of other basic cereals decreased; barley in total and oats were on the historical minimum.

The expected production of spring barley is 1 198 thous. tonnes, i.e. by 109 thous. tonnes more than in 2010. Despite the lower sowing area of 272 thous. ha (drop by 2.4%), however, thanks to a higher per hectare yield of 4.40 t/ha (3.91 t/ha in 2010) the expected harvest is to be by 10.0% higher. As for winter barley, the sowing area decreased by 8.5% to 101 thous. ha. With the same per hectare yield as last year (4.50 t/ha), the expected harvest is 453 thous. tonnes this year, which is by 8.6% lower, year-on-year.
Declining interest of growers proves to be true also in the case of rye, the sowing area of which dropped this year to 25 thous. ha. (-17.4%, y-o-y); with the yield increasing at the same time from 3.91 t/ha in 2010 to 4.23 t/ha in 2011 the harvest is estimated to be 106 thous. tonnes (-10.6%, y-o-y).

Today, rape is the second most common crop in the Czech Republic. Its share in the sowing area structure is 15.0%. Considering the record-breaking sowing area of 373 thous. ha and the expected yield of 2.83 t/ha (the same as last year) a harvest in the amount of 1 056 thous. tonnes (+1.3%, y-o-y) is expected.

More detailed information, also broken down by region, dealing with estimates of per hectare yields and harvest forecasts of selected crops and fruit varieties are given in the follow-up publication of “Harvest forecasts – operational report for June”.
Information on the size and structure of sowing areas is issued in the publication “Register of areas under crops in the Czech Republic as at 31 May 2011”.

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Methodological notes :
Contact person: Jiří Hrbek, phone (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO sample survey in businesses farming on agricultural land
End of data collection: 20 June 2011
End of data processing: 8 July 2011
Related publication: Harvest forecasts – operational report for June (contains more detailed information on estimated per hectare yields and harvest forecasts of selected fruit varieties and early potatoes – also at /csu/czso/harvest-forecast-operative-report-20-june-2011-fwbn0ldv8x )
Update procedure: The next forecast of the yields and harvests of selected crops as at 15 July 2011 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 11 August 2011.

Published: 11.07.2011
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.