Business cycle survey - September 2014

Confidence of entrepreneurs rose slightly again, but confidence of consumers continued to fall, m-o-m

24.09.2014
Code: 070008-14
 




Overall confidence in domestic economy increased slightly again in September. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased slightly by 0.4 points compared to August. Confidence of entrepreneurs increased by 0.9 points, m-o-m. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased in construction, in industry and in trade increased slightly and in selected services did not change. Consumer confidence indicator decreased. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are higher, compared to September 2013.

In industry , in September, confidence increased slightly by 1 point. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents decreased slightly. The assessment of current total demand almost unchanged, the assessment of foreign demand increased. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods increased slightly. For the next three months, respondents expect an increase in the development of production activity and almost no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased compared to August. All in all, confidence in industry is higher, y-o-y.

In September, confidence in construction increased by 4.5 points again. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased slightly m-o-m. The assessment of total demand increased slightly, compared to August. Respondents expect for the next three months almost no changes in the development of construction activity and an increase in the employment. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months increased, for the next six months decreased. Overall, confidence in construction is higher, y-o-y.

In September, confidence in trade increased by 0.6 points, m-o-m. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased slightly m-o-m. The stocks decreased. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased, compared to August. Overall, confidence in trade is higher, y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector) , in September, confidence did not change. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged, m-o-m. The assessment of demand in September decreased, its expectations for the next three months increased. For the next three months, expectations of total economic situation development increased slightly, for the next six months almost unchanged, compared to August. All in all, confidence in selected services is higher, y-o-y.

In September, consumer confidence indicator decreased by 1.5 points, m-o-m, but it is higher y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in September indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months still more afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their own financial standing increased slightly and worries about rise in the unemployment increased again, compared to August. The share of respondents intending to save money increased m-o-m. The respondents concern about rises in prices decreased very slightly m-o-m.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Jiří Obst, tel. +420274054116, e-mail: jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: September 17, 2014
Related publication: 070006-14 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: October 24, 2014

This press release was not edited for language.



  • akpr092414.docx

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 1.1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators 2008 - 2014
  • Graph 1.2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators 1998 - 2014
  • Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
  • Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
Archive:
Show all Hide

Published: 24.09.2014
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz