Business cycle survey - December 2018

Confidence of entrepreneurs increased slightly, confidence of consumers decreased

27.12.2018
Code: 070008-18
 

Overall confidence in economy decreased slightly. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator), that is stated by basic indices, decreased by 0,7 points to 98.6 compared to November. Confidence of entrepreneurs decreased by 1.4 points to 96.4, m-o-m. Consumer confidence indicator increased by 2.3 points to 109.2, m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator is lower compared to December 2017.

In industry, in December, confidence indicator decreased by 1.8 points to 93.4. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged, m-o-m. The assessment of current total demand decreased slightly, the assessment of foreign demand almost unchanged. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged. For the next three months, respondents expect a slight decrease in the development of production activity and almost no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months almost unchanged, for the next six months decreased, m-o-m. Overall, confidence in industry is lower, y-o-y.

In construction, in December, confidence increased by 2.1 points to 105.9. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged, m-o-m. The assessment of total demand for construction work almost unchanged too, compared to November. Expectations of the demand for construction work increased slightly. Respondents expect for the next three months no changes in the development of construction activity and a slight increase in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months increased, for the next six months decreased slightly. All in all, confidence in construction is higher, y-o-y.

In December, confidence in trade increased by 1.9 points to 98.1. The assessment of overall economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged m-o-m. The stocks decreased slightly. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased. Overall, confidence in trade is lower, y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector), in December, confidence decreased by 1.7 points to 99.8. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged compared to November. In December, the assessment of demand decreased as well as its expectations for the next three months. Expectations of total economic situation development for the next three as well as six months almost unchanged. All in all, confidence in selected services is higher, y-o-y.

In December, consumer confidence indicator increased by 2.3 points to 109.2, m-o-m. The survey taken among consumers in December indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months equally afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their financial standing decreased slightly, compared to November. Worries about rise in the unemployment almost unchanged, m-o-m. The share of respondents intending to save money increased. The respondents concern about rises in prices almost unchanged. Overall, consumer confidence indicator is lower, y-o-y.

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Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, Director of Business Statistics Coordination and Business Cycle Surveys Department, tel. +420274052680,  e-mail: juraj.lojka@czso.cz
Contact person: Jiri Obst, Head of Business Cycle Surveys Unit, tel. +420604815440, e-mail: jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey 
End of data collection: November 18, 2018
Next News Release: January 24, 2019

This press release was not edited for language.

Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN.

  •      akpr122718.docx

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Chart 1.1 Confidence indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (2008–2018)
  • Chart 1.2 Confidence indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (1998–2018)
  • Chart 2.1 Confidence Indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services – baes indices, seasonally adjusted (2006–2018)
  • Chart 2.2 Balances of seasonally adjusted confidence indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services (2006–2018)
  • Chart 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison, seasonally adjusted
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Published: 27.12.2018
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz