Business cycle survey - December 2011

Another decrease in confidence of entrepreneurs and consumers

27.12.2011
Code: r-1201-11
 




Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased again m-o-m in December. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased by 1.9 points compared to November, due to decrease in the confidence of both entrepreneurs and consumers. Confidence of entrepreneurs decreased by 2.2 points, m-o-m; confidence of consumers decreased by 0.8 point, m-o-m. Compared to December 2010, the composite confidence indicator is 12.5 points down; if compared to its values during recession (in December 2008 and in 2009), it is still higher.

Business confidence indicator decreased by 2.2 points m-o-m. Confidence decreased in all surveyed branches; in construction the most. The confidence of entrepreneurs is 10.5 points down y-o-y.

In industry, the assessment of current overall economic situation hardly changed in December. The assessment of current total as well as foreign demand decreased. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods hardly changed. For next three months, respondents expect a slowdown in the development of production activity and employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for next three months are slightly higher m-o-m, namely due to expected export opportunities, for next six months they are lower. All in all, confidence in industry decreased by 2 points; compared to December 2010 it is 15.3 points down.

In construction, the assessment of current economic situation hardly changed m-o-m in December. Already low assessment of total demand decreased significantly. For the period of the next three months respondents expect a slowdown in the development of construction activity and in employment. Respondents’ estimates of months of work secured hardly changed. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased. Low confidence in construction decreased by 6.5 points, m-o-m, to be as low as in December 2010.

In trade, the assessment of current economic situation in December hardly changed. According to respondents, in December, the stocks increased. Expectations of the economic situation development for the period of the next three as well as six months are lower than in November. Confidence in trade decreased by 2.4 points, m-o-m, and it is 1.4 point down y-o-y.

In selected services, according to respondents, the assessment of current economic situation did not change compared to November. The assessment of demand as well as its expectations for the next three months decreased. For next three months, expectations of total economic situation development are higher than in November, for next six months they are lower. Confidence in selected services decreased by 1.7 point, m-o-m, to be 7.4 points down y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased after a significant drop in November by 0.8 point and it is 20.5 points down compared to December 2010. The survey taken among consumers in December indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months even more afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Fears of decline in their own financial standing decreased somewhat after previous marked increase. The share of respondents expecting rises in unemployment increased slightly in December. Percentage of respondents intending to save money decreased slightly; less than a half of households still state that concerning their current financial situation, they save money.



Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: 19 December 2011
Related publication: 1201-11 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: 24 January 2012
Not edited for language



  • akpr122711.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – Basic Indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
  • Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
  • Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – International Comparison
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Published: 27.12.2011
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz