Business cycle survey - May 2011

Confidence of entrepreneurs hardly changed, confidence of consumers decreased

Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased slightly m-o-m in May. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased for the fifth time in a row, namely by 0.4 point. Its decreasing is caused namely by a decline in consumers’ confidence and by less positive expectations of entrepreneurs. In May, confidence of entrepreneurs increased faintly (by 0.1 point m-o-m); confidence of consumers decreased by 2.5 points. Compared to May 2010, the composite confidence indicator is 0.7 point up; if compared to its values during recession (in second half of 2008 and in 2009), it is significantly higher.

Business confidence indicator increased faintly in May (by 0.1 point). Confidence decline in industry and trade was balanced by its increase in selected services; confidence in construction did not change. Compared to May 2010, the confidence of entrepreneurs is 3.2 points up. With exception of construction, all branches have already overcome confidence decrease during recession and current decline in confidence is rather caused by growing concerns about sustaining the future development.

In industry, the assessment of current overall economic situation decreased slightly. The assessment of total demand as well as positive assessment of foreign demand decreased a bit as well. According to respondents, stocks increased. For next three months, respondents expect a slight decrease in growth of production activity and employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months are lower than in April, for next six months they are higher. All in all the confidence in industry decreased by 2.4 points; compared to May 2010 it is 2.3 points up. If compared to its values during recession, confidence in industry is on significantly higher levels and it is also higher than its long-term average.

In construction, the assessment of current economic situation decreased again m-o-m in May. Low assessment of total demand improved somewhat. For the period of the next three months respondents expect an increase in construction activity, but they are cautious in respect to employment, compared to April. Respondents estimate that they have work secured by contracts for 8 months ahead, which is more than in previous months. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months are lower than in April, for the next six months they increased a bit. Overall, confidence in construction did not change m-o-m in May and it is 9 points down, y-o-y.

In trade, the assessment of current economic situation in May increased, compared to April. According to respondents, in May, the finished goods stocks decreased. Expectations of the economic situation development for the period of the next three as well as six months are lower than in April. The confidence in trade decreased by 1 point, m-o-m after previous rise; it is 4 points up y-o-y.

In selected services, according to respondents, the assessment of current economic situation increased slightly compared to April. The assessment of demand increased as well as its expectations for the next three months. For next three months, expectations of total economic situation development are slightly higher than in April, for next six they are lower. Overall, the confidence in selected services increased by 3.6 points, m-o-m, after previous drop, to be 6.3 points up y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased by 2.5 points compared to April and it is 9.5 points down compared to May 2010. The survey taken among consumers in May indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation as well as in their own financial standing. The share of respondents expecting rises in unemployment increased slightly in May. Low percentage of respondents planning to save money did not change; additionally, respondents consider present times not convenient for saving. Expectations of rise in prices in next twelve months remain high in May.

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Note
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements
of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: 19 May 2011
Related publication: 1201-10 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction,
Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: 24 June 2011
Not edited for language
Note: Long term average is usually calculated over the period from 1990, if harmonised data are available (for the Czech Republic, it is an average since 1993).

Published: 24.05.2011
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.