Business cycle survey - March 2019

Overall confidence in economy decreased

25.03.2019
Code: 070008-19
 

The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator), that is stated by basic indices, decreased by 1.2 points to 97.0 compared to February. Confidence of entrepreneurs decreased by 1 point to 95.5, m-o-m. Consumer confidence indicator decreased by 1.8 points to 104.6, m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are lower compared to March 2018.

In industry, in March, confidence indicator decreased by 1.5 points to 91.9. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged, m-o-m. The assessment of current total and foreign demand did not change. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged. For the next three months, respondents expect a decrease in the development of production activity and no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months did not change, for the next six months decreased, compared to February. Overall, confidence in industry is still lower, y-o-y.

In construction, in March, confidence increased by 1.5 points to 107.9. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased, m-o-m. The assessment of total demand for construction work increased too, compared to February. Respondents expect for the next three months almost no changes in the development of construction activity and in the employment too. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased. All in all, confidence in construction is higher, y-o-y.

In March, confidence in trade decreased slightly by 0.3 points to 94.0. The assessment of overall economic situation of the respondents did not change, m-o-m. The stocks almost unchanged. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months did not change, for the next six months decreased. Overall, confidence in trade is lower, y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector), in March, confidence decreased slightly by 0.9 points to 97.9. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents did not change compared to February. In March, the assessment of demand decreased slightly, its expectation for the next three months almost unchanged. Expectations of total economic situation development for the next three months decreased, for the next six months almost unchanged. All in all, confidence in selected services is higher, y-o-y.

In March, consumer confidence indicator decreased by 1.8 points to 104.6, m-o-m. The survey taken among consumers in March indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months equally afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their financial standing increased sligthly, compared to February. Worries about rise in the unemployment increased slightly too, m-o-m. The respondents concern about rises in prices almost unchanged. The share of respondents intending to save money almost unchanged too. Overall, consumer confidence indicator is lower, y-o-y.

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Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, Director of Business Statistics Coordination and Business Cycle Surveys Department, tel. +420274052680,  e-mail: juraj.lojka@czso.cz
Contact person: Jiri Obst, Head of Business Cycle Surveys Unit, tel. +420274054116, e-mail: jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey 
End of data collection: March 18, 2019
Next News Release: April 24, 2019

This press release was not edited for language.

Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN.

 

  •      akpr032519.docx

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
  • Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
  • Chart 1.1 Confidence indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (2008–2019)
  • Chart 1.2 Confidence indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (1998–2019)
  • Chart 2.1 Confidence Indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services – baes indices, seasonally adjusted (2006–2019)
  • Chart 2.2 Balances of seasonally adjusted confidence indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services (2006–2019)
  • Chart 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison, seasonally adjusted
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Published: 25.03.2019
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz