National Accounts - 3rd quarter of 2011

GDP increased in Q3 by 1.2%

09.12.2011
Code: r-5002-11
 




In Q3 2011 gross domestic product adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects increased by 1.2%, y-o-y, while in the q-o-q comparison it decreased by 0.1% according to the refined estimate. The main source of the demand growth is only external trade with its marked excess of export over import. Total employment increased by 0.1%, y-o-y, and by 0.4%, q-o-q.


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Gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for price effects and seasonally adjusted */ increased in Q3 by 1.2%, y-o-y, while compared to the previous quarter it was lower by 0.1%. Gradual q-o-q slowdown, which started in Q3 2010, now resulted in a halt of the economic growth. Decrease of the demand for final consumption and capital formation was fully compensated by growth of the contribution of the external trade, in which export grew markedly faster than import of both goods and services.

Preliminary estimate of the GDP growth for Q3 from 15 November was reduced by 0.3 percentage point (p.p.) based on refined or later obtained statistical and administrative data.

Total employment (according to national accounts methodology) increased in Q3 by 0.1%, y-o-y; compared to Q2 2011 it grew by 0.4%. The y-o-y development in individual branches was differentiated – decrease of the number of employed persons in agriculture (including forestry), industry, and construction was compensated by increases in trade, market and non-market services. Compared to the previous quarter, employment slightly increased in most of the market and non-market branches.

On the supply side of the economy, three groupings of branches have a crucial importance for the amount and development of the gross value added – manufacturing, trade (including accommodation and food service activities, and transport), and selected, mainly non-market services (public administration and defence, education, and health and social care activities). Manufacturing generated by almost 11% bigger volume of the GVA than in Q3 2010, as it benefited from increases reached in the preceding quarters, however, it has not reached the level of Q2 2011. Trade remained under the level of both Q3 2010 and Q2 2011. The group of branches of mainly non-market services, on the contrary, recorded a slight y-o-y and q-o-q growth. As for other branches, the GVA increased the most both in the y-o-y and q-o-q comparison in financial and insurance activities, in the q-o-q comparison also in agriculture and forestry; on the other hand, further drop occurred in construction. The GVA in total increased by 1.1%, y-o-y, while compared to Q2 it stagnated.

None of the basic demand components, except for external trade, has reached in real terms the level of the Q3 2010 or Q2 2011.
  • The total 1.2% decrease of final consumption expenditure was contributed to by household expenditure (-0.4%) and, primarily, general government expenditure (-3.0%). Households reduced their expenditure on food, alcohol and non-alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, clothing, footwear, furniture, household equipment, and transport vehicles. At current prices, they spent in total by 1.3% more than a year before.
  • Deep drop of gross capital formation by 6.6%, y-o-y, was influenced mainly by the development of inventories. During Q3, nominal inventories of material, work in progress, finished goods, and goods for resale (not adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects) increased by CZK 17.4 bn, however, they were far from reaching the extraordinarily high base of the last year. Gross fixed capital formation in real terms was lower by 1.9%, y-o-y, and 0.5%, q-o-q, which was owed mainly to decreasing investments to buildings and structures and machinery and equipment. On the contrary, investments to transport vehicles increased.
  • Positive balance of external trade in goods and services (CZK 39.2 bn at current prices) was three times higher than in Q3 2010, namely despite worsening of the terms of trade by 1.5 p.p. The real export increased by 8.8%, y-o-y, while import grew only by 3.1%.

In Q3 2011 gross domestic product at current prices increased by 1.1%, y-o-y, to CZK 957.8 bn, the implicit deflator of GDP dropped by 0.1%, y-o-y, mainly as a result of the different development of export and import prices of goods and services, when the deflator of export decreased by 0.2%, y-o-y, while the deflator of import was higher by 1.3%. The deflator of household final consumption expenditure, which increased by 1.7% was against the decrease of the overall price level.

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Gross domestic product in the EU27 in total increased in Q3 by 1.4%, y-o-y (0.2% compared to Q2) according to the estimate of the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat). In Germany it was by 2.6% and 0.5%, respectively, in Austria by 2.8% and 0.3%, respectively, in Poland by 4.2% and 1.0%, respectively, and in Slovakia by 3.2% and 0.8%, respectively.

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Together with estimate of the economy development for Q3 the CZSO published on its web pages also a revised time series of quarterly national accounts from 1995, which in totals fully follows the annual national accounts for the same period, published on 30 September 2011.
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*/ Unless otherwise stated, all data presented in this news release are adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects.



Notes:
Contact person: Jan Heller, phone (+420) 274 052 865, jan.heller@czso.cz
Preliminary estimate of GDP development for Q4 2011 will be published in harmony with the Catalogue of Publications on 15 February 2012.



  • ahdp120911.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Gross domestic product (in CZK million, indices)
  • Graph 1 GDP and GVA Development at Constant prices, y-o-y indices, seasonally adjusted
  • Graph 2 GDP and GVA Development at Constant prices, q-o-q indices, seasonally adjusted
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Published: 09.12.2011
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


Contact: Information Services Unit - Headquarters, tel.: +420 274 056 789, email: infoservis@czso.cz