National Accounts - 3rd quarter of 2010

GDP in Q3: +2.8%, y-o-y

09.12.2010
Code: r-5002-10
 




In Q3 2010 gross domestic product adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects increased by 2.8%, year-on-year (y-o-y). The GDP development was contributed to mainly by industries in manufacturing, market services and trade. Compared to Q2 2010, the GDP increased by 1.0%.


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Gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects * / increased by 2.8% in Q3, y-o-y, and by 1.0% compared to the previous quarter. Preliminary estimate of the y-o-y GDP development published on 12 November was decreased by 0.2 percentage point (p.p.) mainly due to a change in the indirect taxes development estimate. Not adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, the GDP in Q3 was by 2.5% higher, y-o-y, at the lower number of working days in comparison to Q3 2009. In the q-o-q comparison GDP has been growing already for five consequent quarters; compared to the bottom of the economy in Q2 2009, the GDP in Q3 2010 was higher by 3.3%. After a sharp decline by 3.6% in Q1 2009 the GDP has thus been gradually recovering and it still lacks 1.8% up to the maximum level reached in Q3 2008.

On the supply side of the economy, in Q3 2010 mainly the following industries important as for their volume contributed to the y-o-y increase of the gross value added (GVA) in real terms by 3.7%: manufacturing (growth by 10.7%), market services (+7.0%) and trade (+5.3%). In manufacturing, very successful were: manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, mechanical engineering, and manufacture of electrical and optical equipment; in activities of trade character it was mainly wholesale trade, which contributed to the growth. On the contrary, the GVA in agriculture decreased due to unfavourable climatic conditions almost by a quarter; also construction and non-market services remained under the level of 2009. In comparison to Q2 2010, the GVA increased by 1.5%, the industries pulling the economy were, the same as in the y-o-y comparison, mainly trade (+6.6%) and manufacturing (+4.5%).

Individual demand components showed rather different contributions to the GDP development in Q3 2010, the key role belonged the same as in Q2 to capital formation and within that the inventories increased:
  • The total 0.7% increase of final consumption expenditure (comparing Q3 2010 to Q3 2009) contributed by 0.5 p.p. to the GDP growth. The surplus was owed to households with the y-o-y growth of expenditure by 1.2%, while expenditure of general government decreased by 0.5%, y-o-y.
  • The y-o-y growth of gross capital formation by significant 14.4% contributed to GDP growth (+3.1 p.p.). The gross fixed capital formation was higher, y-o-y, by 1.7%, inventories (without adjustment for seasonal and calendar effects) increased during Q3 2010 in current prices by CZK 19.9 bn (while in the Q3 2009 dropped by CZK 5.2 bn). The q-o-q growth of gross fixed capital formation by 3.7% was the highest for the last three years; among others, investments to photovoltaics were reflected in.
  • Positive balance of external trade in goods and services (CZK 27.2 bn at current prices) was by CZK 22.9 bn lower than in the corresponding quarter of 2009, partially due to a marked worsening of the terms of trade by 2.3 p.p. The real exports increased by 14.1%, while imports by 16.6%. Thus, external trade negatively contributed to the GDP development in the scope of 0.9 p.p.

In Q3 2010 gross domestic product at current prices increased by 2.5%, y-o-y, to CZK 925.4 bn. The implicit deflator of GDP dropped by 0.3%, y-o-y, influenced above all by the terms of trade development in external trade.

Total employment according to national accounts methodology (after seasonal adjustment) was slightly lower in Q3 2010 by 0.1%, than in the Q3 2009. Compared to Q2 2010, the number of the employed increased by 21 thousand (+0.4%) to 5 191 thousand persons.

In compliance with the entire system of annual national accounts published according to the Catalogue of Publications on 1 October on the CZSO website, the corresponding quarterly indicators were updated. The scope of GDP updates and corrections on a quarterly basis compared to data published on 8 September is illustrated in the following table.

Gross domestic product adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects

Table Gross domestic product adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects

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In Q3 2010 gross domestic product in EU 27 adjusted for seasonal effects was, by Eurostat estimate, 2.2% up, y-o-y, of which in the EA it was up by 1.9%. Among our key trade partners, GDP increased in Q3 2010 in Poland (+4.7%), Slovakia (+4.2%), Germany (+3.9%) and in Austria (+2.5%).

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The GDP preliminary estimate for Q4 2010 will be released on 15 February 2011.

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*/ Unless otherwise stated, all data presented in this news release are adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects



Contact: Jan Heller, phone (+420) 274 052 865, e-mail: jan.heller@czso.cz
Related time series: /csu/czso/hdp_ts
Selected tables: /csu/czso/selected-tables-of-quarterly-national-accounts-4th-quarter-of-2010-getx877701



  • ahdp120910.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Gross domestic product (in CZK million, indices)
  • Graph 2 Gross domestic product
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Published: 09.12.2010
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


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