National Accounts - 1st quarter of 2012

GDP in Q1 2012 decreased by 0.7%, y-o-y

08.06.2012
Code: r-5002-12
 




In Q1 2012, the gross domestic product adjusted for price, seasonal, and calendar effects decreased according to the refined estimate by 0.7%, year-on-year (y-o-y), and by 0.8%, quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q).

In Q1 2012, according to the refined estimate, the gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for price effects and seasonally adjusted */ decreased by 0.7%, y-o-y, and compared to Q4 2011 by 0.8%.

The preliminary estimate of 15 May, which indicated a 1% drop of the GDP, has been refined using information obtained later from administrative and partially also statistical sources on the value added broken down by branches, on final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and on external trade development. Based on the information, the estimate of the value added for the non-surveyed part of the economy has been modified as well as the total GDP deflator, which now reflects also refined information on the price development.

The GDP level in Q1 2012, compared to data from 2011, was influenced by an extraordinary decrease of taxes on products, especially the excise tax on tobacco products and the value added tax. A marked y-o-y decrease of taxes on products in total by 5.0% had a negative impact on the GDP in the scope of 0.5 percentage point (p.p.). The fall of taxes on products compared to Q4 2011 by 7.7% decreased the q-o-q development of GDP even by 0.8 p.p. because there was, moreover, reflected also the last year's high basis caused by the stocking up with tobacco products in the end of 2011.

Contributions of individual branches to the development of the supply and the gross value added (GVA) in total were highly differentiated.
In the year-on-year comparison, the GVA decreased by 0.2%; the deepest falls (both more than -7%) were in construction (as previously) and newly also in the financial sector (mainly in the area of insurance activities). The GVA drop was recorded also in the following branches: sale and repair of motor vehicles, retail trade, and manufacture of electrical and optical equipment. On the contrary, the main driving force of the economy was, as usually, manufacturing with the growth by 2.7% and within that mainly manufacture of machinery and equipment, manufacture of wood and paper products and manufacture of furniture.
Compared to Q4 2011, the GVA increased by 0.2%. It was contributed to mainly by increasing performance of services and partially also industry the contribution of which, however, has a falling tendency.

The structure of contribution of the demand components to the GDP development at constant prices was similar as in the previous quarters; however, the positive contribution of external trade (+2.1 p.p.) was no longer able to cover the negative influences of final consumption expenditure (-1.5 p.p.) and capital formation (-1.3 p.p.).

The final consumption expenditure was lower by 2.1%, y-o-y, of which household final consumption expenditure by 2.9% especially due to drop of purchases of durables by 11.5%. Household expenditure on transport, recreation, and culture also decreased. Expenditure on fixed capital formation increased by 1.0% at growing expenditure on machinery and, on the contrary, decreasing interest in transport equipment. The balance of external trade with goods and services grew owing to the bigger growth of exports (+6.5%) than imports (+3.9%).

The overall price level measured by the GDP implicit deflator increased in average by 2.1%, y-o-y, in Q1 2012, of which household final consumption expenditure by 3.7%, fixed capital by 0.9%, exports by 3.0%, and imports by 3.4%.

Total employment in terms of national accounts (seasonally adjusted) remained virtually unchanged both y-o-y and q-o-q. In the average, the number of employed persons in the economy was 5 060 thousand.


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Together with the estimate for the first quarter of 2012, indicators of all quarters of 2011 have been refined. Partial corrections of the GDP have not changed the values published in March (except for the Q1, in which the GDP growth has been increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8%).
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*/ Unless otherwise stated, all data presented in this news release are adjusted for price, seasonal, and calendar effects.


Contact person: Jan Heller, Director of the Quarterly National Accounts Department, phone (+420) 274 052 865 , e-mail: jan.heller@czso.cz
Used data sources updated as at: 5 June 2012
Related CZSO web page: /csu/czso/hdp_ts
Next News Release will be published on: 14 August 2012 (GDP preliminary estimate for the second quarter of 2012)



  • ahdp060812.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Gross domestic product (in CZK million, indices)
  • Graph 1 GDP and GVA Development at Constant prices, y-o-y indices, seasonally adjusted
  • Graph 2 GDP and GVA Development at Constant prices, q-o-q indices, seasonally adjusted
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Published: 08.06.2012
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


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