National Accounts - 1st quarter of 2010

GDP in Q1: +1.1%, y-o-y

09.06.2010
Code: r-5002-10
 




In Q1 2010 gross domestic product adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects increased by 1.1%, y-o-y. On the contrary, total employment dropped by 2.1%. The GDP development was strongly positively influenced by the recovery of production of transport equipment.


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Gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects /*, increased by 1.1% in Q1, y-o-y, and by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter. From the comparable time series it results that the bottom of the economic performance was in the second quarter of 2009; since the third quarter of 2009 the GDP is regularly growing by 0.5%, q-o-q. Total employment (according to national accounts methodology) was further decreasing in Q1 both in the y-o-y and q-o-q comparison by 2.1% and 0.9%, respectively. Compared to Q1 2009, the total employment decreased by 110 thousand to 5 164 thousand persons.

The preliminary GDP estimate of growth for Q1 2010 published on 12 May was reduced by 0.1 percentage point (p.p.) in the y-o-y comparison. On the contrary, compared to the Q4 2009, the estimate was increased by 0.3 p.p. The y-o-y and q-o-q corrections are, partially, a consequence of correction of indicators for individual quarters of 2009.

GDP development at constant prices in 2009 (%)

Table GDP development at constant prices in 2009 (%)


On the supply side of the economy the y-o-y growth of real gross value added (GVA) in Q1 2010 by 1.3% was owed especially to the contribution of manufacturing, in which GVA increased by 7.0%, and within that it was mainly production of transport equipment with a surplus of more than 40%. On the contrary, GVA fell mainly in wholesale and retail trade (due to a decrease of trade margins, on the expense of which trade enterprises partially eliminated VAT increase) and energy, especially due to high comparable basis.

Individual demand components showed rather different contributions to the GDP development in Q1 2010:
  • The total 0.4% increase of final consumption expenditure (comparing Q1 2010 to Q1 2009) contributed positively by 0.3 p.p. to the GDP growth. The overall surplus was owed to the general government expenditure. Nominal household expenditure (at current prices) remained on the level of Q1 2009, however, real household expenditure dropped by 0.5% due to the growth of consumer prices.
  • Drop of real gross capital formation by 4.5% had a negative impact on GDP (-0.9 p.p.). The gross fixed capital formation was lower, y-o-y, by 6.6% with a negative contribution (-1.5 p.p.) to the GDP development. Nominal inventories increased during the Q1 2010 by CZK 13.1 billion (in Q1 2009 they increased by CZK 9.3 billion).
  • Balance of nominal external trade in goods and services of CZK 40.1 bn was by CZK 4.0 bn higher than in the corresponding quarter of 2009, despite marked worsening of the terms of trade by 1.6 p.p. The real export increased by 12.9%, while import grew only by 10.7%. Thus, external trade contributed to the GDP growth in the scope of 1.9 p. p.

In Q1 2010 gross domestic product at current prices fell by 0.6%, y-o-y, to CZK 905.0 bn, especially due to a decrease of the overall price level. The implicit deflator of GDP dropped by 1.7%, y-o-y, influenced above all by the decrease of external trade prices. Export prices were lower by 7.2%, y-o-y, import prices decreased by 5.6%. Deflator of tax on products (VAT and excise duties) had an opposite effect of the 6.2% increase.

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In Q1 2010 gross domestic product in EU 27 adjusted for seasonal effects was, by Eurostat estimate, 0.5% up, y-o-y. Among our key trade partners, GDP increased in Q1 2010 in Slovakia (+4.5%), Poland (+2.8%) and Germany (+1.5%).

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In compliance with the Catalogue of Publications, the GDP preliminary estimate for Q2 2010 will be released on 13 August.

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*/ Unless otherwise stated, all data presented in this news release are adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects


Contact: Jan Heller, phone (+420) 274 052 865, e-mail: jan.heller@czso.cz
Related time series: /csu/czso/hdp_ts
Selected tables: /csu/czso/selected-tables-of-quarterly-national-accounts-4th-quarter-of-2010-getx877701



  •      ahdp060910.doc

  • Annexes:
  • Table 1 Gross domestic product (in CZK million, indices)
  • Graph 1 Gross domestic product (year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter indices)
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Published: 09.06.2010
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.


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